Andy Ross 2016-08-30
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BLOG 2016


"Brexit is ... a huge problem
politically ... If we organize
Brexit in the wrong way, then
we'll be in deep trouble, so
now we need to make sure
that we don't allow Britain to
keep the nice things, so to
speak, related to Europe while
taking no responsibility."
Sigmar Gabriel

"I think everyone should
be comfortable being
naked because everyone's
body is beautiful."
Cara Delevingne

AR Everyone's?

Juno makes its closest pass
of Jupiter at 12.51 UTC today.
The close encounter will be the
first time the $1.1 billion probe
has its full set of cameras and
instruments on and facing the
planet as it flies 4 Mm over
the clouds. We hope for
spectacular images.


AR My 1996 novel aimed to
replace humanism with unifed
planetary consciousness and
sketch a path to the Lifeball.
The novel accelerated things
with a Googly god coded by
a hyperconscious neutron
star — my muse for all
this was Carl Sagan.

Poles in UK
Jakub Krupa

In 2015, there were 831,000
Polish people in the UK — the
biggest foreign-born population
in Britain. Polish migrants living
in the UK have gained confidence
in their value, built their social
skills, and developed fluency
in English. Now 92% of Polish
migrants are in employment or
education, the highest level
among all nationalities,
including the British.

Alpha Centauri (left),
Beta Centauri (right),
Proxima Centauri
(in red ring)

RAF V-bombers, L to R:
Vulcan (first flew 1952),
Valiant (1951), Victor (1952).
In 1964 the RAF flew 70 Vulcans,
50 Valiants and 39 Victors.

When Britain Ruled the Skies

AR Boyhood dreams

Aheda Zanetti
"When I invented the burkini
in early 2004, it was to give
women freedom, not
to take it away."
Aheda Zanetti

Current net worth of
Bill Gates (60)

The Messenger of Monotheism


2016 August 30

Apple Tax

Financial Times

Brussels has hit Apple with a tax penalty of up to €13 billion after finding the US tech group enjoyed a quarter of a century of illegal state support from Ireland that distorted competition in Europe. The bill sets the stage for a big fight over the taxation of US multinationals and EU reach into national tax policy. EU competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager: "Fair taxation is a global issue."

AR This is not only a hard ruling but also a marginally legal one, since it applies retrospectively, yet it is surely a decent one. Big companies are sitting on multibillion cash piles while governments struggle to provide basic services. Global corporations must not only obey the letter of the law but also be seen to happy to act in the manifest public interest.

The Irish model of massive tax breaks for global companies was an attempt to run rings around taxpayers across Europe and an invitation to other nations to participate in a race to the bottom. Britain after Brexit is flirting with the same business model and invites a similarly draconian EU reaction. Let us not seek to beggar our neighbors in our enthusiasm to get rich quick.

2016 August 29

Scruton On Wagner

Jonathan Gaisman

Sir Roger Scruton is one of the finest philosopher-musicians since Schopenhauer.

Scruton: "Wagner's works ... are revelations ... Wagner ... makes available to an age without religious belief the core religious experience."

Wagner: "It is reserved to art to salvage the kernel of religion, inasmuch as the mythical images which religion would wish to be believed as true are apprehended in art for their symbolic value, and through ideal representation of those symbols art reveals the concealed deep truth within them."

The Ring cycle presents a crepuscular hunter-gatherer world on the edge of a more organized society, in which the exercise of power rests on arrogation. Love and sacrifice emerge as the only means of opposing this power and as the sole path to redemption.

Scruton focuses attention on the two most sacred episodes in the cycle:

1 In Act 3 of Die Walküre, Wotan consigns to sleep and kisses away the godhead of his daughter Brünnhilde, who has followed the way of love forbidden to the immortals. This is a moment of incarnation, in which a god chooses humanity with the intention of saving it.

2 In Act 3 of Götterdämmerung, Brünnhilde releases her father from the existential anxiety that has haunted his noble spirit, and puts him finally and definitively to rest. This is nothing less than the end of religion.

Scruton exposes how Wagner uses music to make dramatic and philosophical assertions.

AR The cult of the Ring is like cults for Star Trek or The Lord of the Rings.

2016 August 28


Christopher Booker

The European Union faces existential problems. The euro is a slow-motion catastrophe, the flood of refugees is unending, terrorism is a deadly plague, and an energy crunch is approaching. Amid growing mistrust across Europe for all the EU stands for, it is now faced with the vote of one of its largest members to leave it altogether.

The venue chosen for last week's meeting of the leaders of Germany, France and Italy, was the little island of Ventotene off Naples. There, in 1941, a prisoner of Mussolini's had written the visionary manifesto that looked forward to building a United States of Europe. Altiero Spinelli proposed that the future government of Europe be quietly assembled over many years, and then when all its pieces were in place a convention would draw up a Constitution for Europe.

When Spinelli was elected as a Communist MEP in 1979, he became the second most influential person, after Jean Monnet, in shaping Europe as we know it today. The headquarters of the European Parliament in Brussels is called the Altiero Spinelli Building. The project has always aimed to promote a supranational government for Europe.

AR Booker is in bad company: Anders Breivik too was incensed by the communist prehistory of the EU. But its problems are hardly existential. The euro can work in a federal Europe, the refugee flood and terrorism are harder issues to tackle without the EU, and our response to the energy crunch is best coordinated on a continental scale.

There is an equally plausible counter-narrative to that of widespread mistrust in the EU. It goes like this: Brexit was hatched by a gang of renegade nationalists and rapacious capitalists who aimed to profit from a captive population duped by rabid rabble rousers into voting away (1) their market rights and protections, (2) their freedom to come and go as they please, and (3) their hopes for a better world in which queen and country no longer dominate the outlook.

Workers of the world might choose to unite to put down the nationalist rebellion on the British Isles. They might see a tax haven economy in an anachronistic polity that prizes carpetbagger billionaires over the downtrodden masses as an intolerable blemish on the map of Europe. Harken to their alliterative war-cry: Blackball Brexit Britain!

2016 August 27


Yuval Noah Harari

For thousands of years humans believed that authority came from the gods. Then humanists gradually shifted authority from deities to people. Our own feelings and desires became the ultimate source of meaning.

Now, a fresh shift is taking place. High-tech gurus and Silicon Valley prophets are creating a new universal narrative that legitimises the authority of algorithms and Big Data — Dataism.

Dataists believe in the invisible hand of the dataflow. As the global data-processing system becomes all-knowing and all-powerful, so connecting to the system becomes the source of all meaning. Dataists believe that given enough biometric data and computing power, this all-encompassing system could understand humans better than we understand ourselves.

Humanists have seen the human heart as the supreme source of authority. In politics, we believe that authority depends on the free choices of ordinary voters. Humanist education teaches us to think for ourselves and humanist ethics tells us if it feels good, do it.

Yet the idea of free will is under threat. Scientific insights into the way our brains and bodies work suggest that our feelings are biochemical mechanisms that all mammals and birds use to make decisions by calculating probabilities of survival and reproduction. Feelings are evolutionary rationality made flesh.

Until now humanism made good practical sense. There was nothing magical about our feelings, but they were the best way we had to make decisions. Even if the church or the state spied on me all the time, they lacked the facts and the logic to calculate the biochemical processes shaping my will.

But Google and Facebook are gaining the edge. Biologists are deciphering the mysteries of the human body and brain and computer scientists are giving us unprecedented logic power. Once Big Data systems know me better than I know myself, authority will shift from humans to algorithms.

Devices such as Kindle can collect data on their users while they are reading books. If Kindle were upgraded with face recognition software and biometric sensors, it would know how each sentence influenced your heart rate and blood pressure. Such data should eventually enable Amazon to choose books for you with uncanny precision, to know who you are and how to press your emotional buttons.

Medical doctors increasingly base decisions about your life on the calculations of computers that know you better than you know yourself. Eventually people may give algorithms the authority to make the most important decisions in their lives, such as whom to marry. Google will likely do better on average than me.

Dataism offers a single overarching theory that unifies all the scientific disciplines. Your favorite music, a stock exchange bubble, and the flu virus are just three patterns of dataflow that can be analyzed using the same basic concepts and tools. Dataism may conquer the world.

AR The world is a nail for a man with a hammer.


Paul Taylor

The challenge in machine learning is to find a rule that classifies data correctly and is likely to work for future examples. An algorithm might project two datasets into an n-dimensional feature space and find a simple separation by a process of iterative searching.

Such classification algorithms are known as support vector machines. They identify the hyperplane that optimally separates points in an n-dimensional space. SVMs have the property, not shared by neural networks, that if the computation converges on a solution, it is optimal.

Until recently, most research in machine learning was focused on such techniques. As computers became more powerful and datasets larger, it became practical to leave the computers to figure out the right feature space to use. It seemed as if the computer had learned concepts.

Google built a huge artificial neural network called Inception to analyze still images selected at random from ten million YouTube videos. The tall stack of layers in this network enabled it to recognise human or cat faces. Inception distilled the concept of a cat face out of the data by itself.

A recurrent neural network uses weighted links not just between nodes but between instances of the same node at successive steps in the computation. Recurrent networks are ideally suited to analyzing sequential data, such as speech or language. They can predict the next word in a sentence to create a point in a feature space for each word.

Google uses a recurrent neural network approach for machine translation. Their network creates mappings between the feature representations of words in different languages. The Google network may soon seem to be using language as humans do.

AR When Google speaks, we shall bow down and worship.

2016 August 26

Liberal Islam Is No Answer

Zaheer Kazmi

The problem of Islamist terrorism and extremism cannot be solved by reforming Islam. Four problems blight attempts at liberal reform:

1 Liberal Islam is based on a mostly imagined account of Islamic history. Rationalizing history to serve present purposes makes only a marriage of convenience.

2 Liberal Muslims see Islam through values stemming from a western heritage reaching back to antiquity for legitimation. A liberal caliphate is an oxymoron.

3 Liberal Muslims seek to define a true Islam to exclude extremists and say most Muslims are moderate. Such exclusion conflates extremism with heresy.

4 Liberal Islam lacks transcendent content and aims only for a polity consistent with sharia. Its focus on management rather than mysticism confuses sharia with spiritualism.

Muslim liberals have yet to offer a clear alternative to Islamist militancy or western secularism.

Cooperative Evolution

Ian Johnston

Not all species struggle to keep up with competitors. Two species can start working together. For years scientists thought mutualists evolved more slowly. But new research suggests that mutualists can evolve faster than separatists.

Researchers sequenced the genomes of ants evolved to protect plants that provide them with food and nesting chambers. These ants were aggressive, patrolling and attacking herbivores and invaders. The researchers compared their evolution with other ants who live in the same place but have different behavior.

Benjamin Rubin: "We originally set out to uncover the genetic basis of mutualistic behavior in ants. So we sequenced the genomes of three mutualistic species of plant-ants and four of their closely related, non-mutualistic relatives. We were surprised to learn that the mutualists actually had a higher rate of evolution across their genomes than the generalists."

Populism v Democracy

A.C. Grayling

Populism can be toxic. A state run through populist referendums on every issue would be chaotic and would crush civil liberties and minorities. Representative democracy has evolved to manage its crudities.

Instead of mass referendums we have an elected legislature. Its representatives have plenipotentiary powers. They act on behalf of their constituents rather than carrying out the will of those who voted for them.

In the June 23 referendum, less than a third of the population voted for Brexit. But 76% of MPs saw remaining in the EU as in the best interests of the UK. MPs who fail to do what they think is right for the UK are failing in their job.

AR Professor Grayling and I shared much the same Oxford education in political philosophy and taught for a while at the same Oxford college, so I naturally agree with him.

2016 August 25

Proxima b

Philip Ball

Nature announces that astronomers have found an Earth-like planet orbiting Proxima Centauri
(see blog 2016-08-19).

On the basis of planet surveys to date, we now believe that around 1 in 5 of Sun-like stars has a planet of similar size and composition to Earth within their temperate zone, not too hot and not too cold for liquid water to exist.

Earlier this year, billionaire entrepreneur Yuri Milner announced a $100 million project called Starshot to develop a probe to fly to Proxima Centauri in just 20 years (see blog 2016-04-13).

Proxima Centauri is a red dwarf, with 12% of the Sun's mass and 0.15% of its brightness. Its temperate zone is correspondingly closer to the star. Its planet Proxima b has an estimated mass of 1.3 times that of Earth, and it orbits the star once every 11 (terrestrial) days or so.

For dwarf stars like Proxima Centauri, orbiting planets can be detected by a wobble in the parent star, seen as a Doppler shift in the wavelength of light emitted from the stellar atmosphere. Periodic red and blue shifts reveal the duration of the planet's orbit, from which we can calculate its orbital distance.

Liquid water and rocky ingredients on Proxima b make life more likely. But a magnetic field to fend off solar wind is essential too because its star is more unstable than our Sun. Powerful solar flares spray the planet with intense bursts of particles and radiation, including 400 times the dose of X-rays that the Earth receives from the Sun.

If Proxima b passes in front of its star from our perspective, we might read the composition of its atmosphere from a spectral analysis. But the chances of such a transit are very low. We are a long way from finding neighbors out there.

AR This could form the basis of a great sci-fi novel/movie about visiting the planet. I'd set it a century or so in the future and imagine a robot ship offering telepresence for Earthbound humans. The big challenge would be to set up a plausible starshot-capable society on Earth — contact with an extremely alien lifeform would be the cherry on top from an authorial point of view.

Brexit Costs

Rupert Pennant-Rea

On June 23, the day of the referendum, sterling reached a high of $1.50 and €1.31 shortly after polls closed. It then plummeted, and has since averaged at about $1.30 and €1.18. In trade-weighted terms, the pound is down more than 15% from its level a year ago.

The foreign exchanges are backed by many billions of dollars from in and outside the UK. They are saying that everything in the UK has been marked down against the rest of the world. Imports make up roughly 30% of UK GDP, and if their cost goes up because of the vote to leave the EU, in time everybody will be poorer.

The mechanism is that prices rise more than wages. A real-wage cut cements the effects of a cheaper pound. In the past, each devaluation of the pound produced a temporary fall in the real exchange rate, until domestic costs started rising faster than the costs of UK trading partners, when the advantage eroded.

A devaluation-powered improvement in UK trade will be harder to achieve if Brexit reduces access to the EU single market and too few new export markets open up. The British are poorer than they were before the votes were counted on June 23. That reality will be clear to see soon enough.

AR This cycle of greed for pay and perks followed by devaluation has been the tragic fate of Greece, Italy, and other European countries. It destroys stability and confidence. The strongest holdout against such boom-and-bust thinking has been Germany, and now EZ countries are painfully learning the lesson that budget discipline is better. The Brexit vote showed that UK voters are ready to bet on boom and bust again. I see only folly.

2016 August 24

EU Defense

The Times

Czech Republic prime minister Bohuslav Sobotka: "In the face of uncontrolled mass migration, even states in the center of Europe have realized that internal borders must be better controlled. Aside from better coordinated foreign and security policy, I also believe that in the long term we will be unable to do without a joint European army."

Security and defense are on the agenda as the EU prepares to relaunch itself at the 70th anniversary celebrations in Rome next March. EU leaders see a good starting point in the mutual defense clause introduced by the Lisbon treaty of 2009. Like NATO Article 5, it commits all members to come to the defense of any member under attack.

Federalists see huge cost savings from streamlining the overlapping defense plans of EU member states. A June review of EU defense and military aims envisaged multinational military headquarters, combined procurement, and deployments in times of existential crisis. America and NATO are wary of any talk of EU military integration.

AR Good plan to integrate EU defense: I just wish the UK were participating.

EZ Going

Financial Times

The latest data suggests the eurozone has shrugged off the Brexit vote. Purchasing manager indexes for the single currency area, a reasonably reliable indicator of future growth, showed a composite measure of confidence holding up well in August, consistent with the economy turning in another solid performance in the third quarter.

Big Banks Blockchain

Financial Times

Four big banks — UBS, Deutsche Bank, Santander, and BNY Mellon — will develop a new form of digital cash as an industry standard to clear and settle financial trades over blockchain technology. Their utility settlement coin will let financial institutions pay for securities without waiting for traditional money transfers to clear. The digital coins are directly convertible into cash at central banks and stored using blockchain distributed ledger technology. Launch target is early 2018.

AR Mathematics in action, improving life as we know it.

2016 August 23

EU Leaders Stay Firm

Financial Times

The leaders of Germany, France, and Italy will not let Brexit reverse EU integration:

1 They pledge to reinforce European defense, solve the refugee crisis, and spur economic growth.
2 They will seek an EU agreement to improve intelligence sharing against Islamist terrorism.
3 They plan to boost industrial cooperation among European defense companies.

Angela Merkel: "Faced with terrorism and the civil war in Syria, we must do more for our internal and external security. Defense cooperation must be strengthened and the exchange of intelligence information must be intensified."

François Hollande: "If there is one wish we have to share it is to say that Europe must assure its own defense, and France will take its part."

The three leaders resolved to to prolong a €315 billion EU investment plan by two years to 2019 and discussed an enlargement of the plan.

EU-27 leaders are preparing for a summit next month in Bratislava.

UK Islamists

Melanie Phillips

A UK government review of Islamist extremism in prisons proposes segregating a small number of the most dangerous Islamist prisoners to prevent them from radicalizing other inmates.

British jails have become universities of jihad. Islamists threaten prison staff and other inmates, aggressively promote conversion to Islam, and pressure staff to leave the prayer room during periods of unsupervised collective worship.

The Deobandi sect, to which over two-thirds of prison imams belong, is hardline fundamentalist and gave rise to the Taliban. Mainstream Deobandi thinking in the UK denounces integration, demonizes Christians and Jews, and supports terrorism abroad. Deobandis control almost half of British mosques and nearly all UK-based training of Islamic scholars.

The steady penetration of Islamist extremism in Britain is a reality. Many Muslims interpret any attempt to thwart it as an attack on their whole community. Refusal to acknowledge this reality is the road to defeat.

My Math


Progressed from level 2 to level 3 in classical mechanics.

2016 August 22

UK Infrastructure Spending Spree Needed

Financial Times

The value of UK infrastructure contracts for July dropped to £1.5 billion. This is a fall of 20% against the previous month and 23% lower than a year ago. It seems investors are putting projects on hold as the result of uncertainty surrounding UK withdrawal from the EU.

UK prime minister Theresa May has put infrastructure at the heart of plans to rebuild the economy. Net public sector investment, which includes infrastructure investment, fell from £51.5 billion in 2009 (3.4% of GDP) to £33.2 billion (1.8% of GDP) in 2015-16. The WEF ranks the UK 24th in the world for the quality of its infrastructure.

AR Fix UK roads!

The Silk Roads

Peter Frankopan

AR I have started reading this book at bedtime and am already gaining new insights. Frankopan goes against the Eurocentric tradition of beginning his history of the world with the ancient Greeks and begins instead with the Persians in a history turning on the heartlands of central Asia.

Starting in about the second century of the Common Era, Persia suffered an epidemic of Christian and Buddhist missionary activity. The authorities reacted by deliberately encouraging the old Zoroastrian beliefs (focused on purity and fire) to maintain the martial vigor of the population. The religion of Zoroaster (or Zarathustra) first appeared in about the sixth century BCE.

It occurs to me that Friedrich Nietzsche saw his Also sprach Zarathustra as attempt to do the same thing for Germans, whom he diagnosed as having gone soft through centuries of Christianity. His Zarathustra preached racial purity and the incendiary virtues of strife. As a professor of classical philology, Nietzsche would have been well aware of the precedent.

Corin Messer
Red Arrows, BAF day 4

Corin Messer
RAF Eurofighter Typhoon
BAF day 4

Mo Farah
Mo Farah
4 golds in 2 Olympics

Michael Phelps
23 golds in 4 Olympics

Russian tanks, Ilovaisk, Ukraine

British Jews upset by
Brexit look to Germany

The New York Times

London-based Jewish News
editor Richard Ferrer says
Germany has done all in its
power to right its past wrongs:
"I'm very pro-German and I'm
very happy with Germany."

Blackbox Film & Medienproduktion
Brunhilde Pomsel, 105



2016 August 21

Bournemouth Air Festival 2016

Day 4

AR Better weather today, so the show was better. The start was much the same, but continued into aerobatics by Gerald Cooper in his Xtreme Air XA41, fly-pasts of WW2 American B-25 Mitchell and
B-17 Flying Fortress bombers, wing-walking on a pair of AeroSuperBatics biplanes, a parachute team jumping from an Antonov An-2, a BAC Strikemaster jet, a WW2 Spitfire Mk 2 — an original Battle of Britain veteran, with a patched hole in the wing from a Messerschmitt cannon shell (but the wounded Polish pilot nursed his hit Spit back to base), flying in the colours of an ace who scored 26 kills, accompanied by music from the Battle of Britain movie blared out over the festival PA speakers — followed by the Red Arrows and at last the mighty Typhoon, making a thunderous noise from its twin ten-ton-thrust turbojets as it climbed vertically into the clouds on full reheat. The Great War biplane dogfight and the Lancaster bomber flyby were canceled because the wind was too gusty. The crowd contained a large proportion of people with visibly Muslim or subtropical heritage, for whom all this was rather strange. British culture is shrinking into a museum format, and its remains are morphing into awkwardly curated parts of a new global culture.

Olympic Cheer

Bryan Appleyard

Britain is taking the ideal of the Olympics seriously. In Sydney in 2000, we won 28 medals; in London in 2012, 65; and so far in Rio in 2016, 66, including 27 gold, second only to the United States. Suddenly we are Team GB.

Our boys and girls wrap themselves in union jacks and the nation feels a warm patriotic glow. Football remains overwhelmingly our national sport. But for the brief quadrennial convulsion of the Olympics, it is, in terms of money, audiences, and emotion, the only game that matters.

National pride can be a reason for sport. Sports and the arts are performed by specialists for specialists and yet we think they are of wider importance. Baron de Coubertin, the founder of the modern Games, called the Olympics a quadrennial celebration of the springtime of humanity.

Team GB
The Sunday Times

Team GB have done it again. A grateful nation cannot but rejoice in our incredible tally of gold, silver and bronze — enough for us to vie for second place with China, behind only America. Not for a century has Britain finished second in the gold medals table. Team GB has as many gold medals as Germany and France put together.

AR The breathessly patriotic BBC coverage gave us no coherent idea of which competitors other than Team GB won which medals for which sports.

2016 August 20

Bournemouth Air Festival 2016

Day 3

AR Saturday was not much of a day for flying — fierce westerly wind, high waves, low billowing clouds — but there was still some flying over the pier this afternoon. I watched three helicopters (a Merlin and two Wildcats) and two Hawk jets fly around as a big navy frigate pushed through the waves to support a simulated marines landing on the beach. Then the Red Arrows did their customary choreographed routine with red, white and blue smoke over the bay. All this action was good for the armed forces recruiting stands along the seafront, who were encouraging boys to get involved. I guess there will be no shortage of eager recruits to ensure that Britain punches above its weight when the EU army invasion barges come crashing onto our shores.


Paul Johnson

Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond will make his autumn statement in a fog of uncertainty. After six years of austerity, spending on public services has been squeezed more than at any time since WW2. Keeping to current plans will involve cuts of 30% from 2010 levels for many items.

Forecasts have to be made without knowing how Britain will settle with the rest of the EU. The UK economy will be much smaller by 2030 if we end up trading with the EU on standard WTO terms than if we retain full membership of the single market. The forecasts will be worse than before the vote.

Brexit worsens our economic prospects. If we leave the single market and lose much of the financial services industry of if we restrict immigration of citizens from the EU, the rest of us will have to pay more taxes or suffer worse public services. An end to austerity will merely postpone the bad news.

AR The math is clear: Brexit is a bust.

My Math


Progressed from level 3 to level 4 in geometry.

2016 August 19

Proxima Centauri

Der Spiegel

European astronomers have discovered an Earth-like planet orbiting our nearest stellar neighbor, the red dwarf star Proxima Centauri, just 40 Pm away.

Because the star is dim and sometimes produces apocalyptic eruptions of plasma, any plants on the planet would be black to use all the light for photosynthesis. Any animals would have to be tough enough to survive hellish conditions.

European Southern Observatory (ESO) astrophysicist: "It was hard work finding the tiny celestial body. We were at the limits of what is technologically possible when it comes to measurements."

The ESO team used a specialized reflector telescope on la Silla, a mountain in the Atacama Desert in Chile. They looked at Proxima Centauri for months and detected a tiny regular wobble in its position caused by an unseen companion tugging at it. The planet has an Earth-like mass and moves so close to its sun that liquid water could exist on its surface.

New propulsion concepts would allow a nanotech probe to fly to the new planet within half a century by accelerating to 0.1c.

AR I worked on an ESO stellar atlas at Springer in 1987. I have the book in front of me now.

2016 August 18

EU Question

Richard Thaler

The Brexit vote has created an environment of great uncertainty. No one can predict with any confidence what will happen for at least the next three years, but economists are in unusual agreement that if Brexit occurs it will be bad for the UK and bad for the EU.

The more complicated the decision, the less desirable a referendum. It is hard to think of a more complex choice than Europe to put to voters. Given the ambiguity of Article 50, voters had no way of knowing what outcomes would come from a vote to Remain or Leave.

A majority of 4% in a referendum should not be considered a mandate to hastily invoke Article 50. The vote was a straw poll of voter sentiments. Voters should be given the opportunity to change their mind, either via a vote in parliament or in a second referendum.

EZ Answer

Joseph Stiglitz

The euro was supposed to bring prosperity and enhance European solidarity. It has done just the opposite. Without adjustable interest or exchange rates and with a central bank focused on inflation, the EZ raised unemployment and reduced GDP. Changes are needed:

A common banking union and deposit insurance, trade surplus rules, and eurobonds
Monetary policy to focus more on employment, growth and stability, not just inflation
Industrial and other policies aimed at helping laggard countries catch up to the leaders
A move away from austerity toward growth-oriented fiscal policies

A single currency is neither necessary nor sufficient for close economic and political cooperation. A smooth transition might move to a flexible euro system: strong neuro in the NEZ, softer seuro in the SEZ. To deal with legacy debt, redenominate euro debts as seuro debts.

My Math


Progressed from level 3 to level 4 in algebra.

2016 August 17

Conflict in Ukraine

Institute for the Study of War

Preparations for conventional conflict between Russia and Ukraine are accelerating. Russia has positioned military units with thousands of troops in Bryansk, near Rostov, in Crimea, and in Transnistria. Russia has also deployed an air defence regiment in Donbass.

AR Russia can beat us in Ukraine.

UK in Europe

Rafael Behr

Theresa May needs a broader agenda to discuss what the UK has to offer as a strategic partner to the European project. Her pitch must include promises to engage with the big continental challenges. The question is not whether we can cobble together a thin facsimile of EU membership but how the UK can be an upstanding friend and neighbor to the EU.

Leaving the EU will involve diplomacy as pro-European as that required for joining in the first place. In the intervening years we have spent a lot of energy arguing about what Europe means to Britain. It is time to consider what the rest of Europe might see in us.

AR The UK has scored an own goal with the Brexit vote.

My Math


Progressed from level 3 to level 4 in number theory.

2016 August 16

Vita Activa

Stephanie DeGooyer

Ada Ushpiz's documentary Vita Activa: The Spirit of Hannah Arendt (2016) seeks to convey the complexity and idiosyncrasy of the philosopher's thinking. Arendt used the phrase Vita Activa to denote the fundamental categories — labor, work, action — of an active life.

A problem with making a film about Arendt is that philosophers are not supposed to have lives. Martin Heidegger once was asked: "What was the life of Aristotle?" His answer was that Aristotle was a philosopher: "He was born, he thought, and he died." All the rest is pure anecdote. Arendt would have agreed with him.

Documentaries about Heidegger avoid his relationship to Arendt and other women. In Vita Activa, Heidegger's granddaughter Gertrud Heidegger suggests that Heidegger took "spiritual comfort" in many young academic women, Arendt among them. But films about Arendt place her association with him at the heart of her life.

During an interview with Arendt's former assistant about Heidegger's ties to the Nazi party, Ushpiz asks whether Heidegger, like Adolf Eichmann, failed to think what he was doing. The assistant laughs nervously in response. Arendt did not openly engage with Heidegger's Nazism, but an assessment of his failure to think is unavoidable.

2016 August 15

A German Life

Brunhilde Pomsel

Joseph Goebbels would walk up the steps from his little palace near the Brandenburg Gate, on to which his huge propaganda ministry was attached. He'd trip up the steps like a little duke, through his library into his beautiful office on Unter den Linden.

I worked as a shorthand typist in his office. We always knew once he had arrived, but we didn't normally see him until he left his office, coming through a door that led directly into our room. He was short but well groomed and had a gentlemanly air. He wore suits of the best cloth and always had a light tan. He had well-groomed hands — there was really nothing to criticize about him. I felt sorry for him because of his limp, which he made up for by being a bit arrogant.

I was terrified to see him on stage at the Berliner Sportpalast delivering his "total war" speech in February 1943. I had a seat behind Magda Goebbels. In the office he had a kind of noble elegance, and then to see him there like a raging midget — you just can't imagine a greater contrast.

In the Führerbunker during the last days of the war, it felt as if something inside me had died. We tried to make sure we didn't run out of alcohol. That was urgently needed to stay numb.

When the Holocaust memorial was unveiled in 2005, I took a trip to see it for myself. I went into the information center and told them I myself was missing someone, an Eva Löwenthal. The list of names on the machine we used just kept on rolling nonstop down the screen.

2016 August 14

Brexit Update

The Sunday Times

UK PM Theresa May may be forced to delay enactment of article 50 to late 2017 because her new Brexit and international trade departments will not be ready. French and German elections are also being cited as a cause for delay. Britain might not invoke article 50 until France has voted next May or even until after the German poll in September. The new departments are being set up from scratch and the situation is chaotic, say sources.

Fox—Johnson Feud
The Telegraph

UK international trade secretary Liam Fox and foreign secretary Boris Johnson are feuding over who controls key parts of UK foreign policy. Fox wrote to Johnson suggesting British trade with other countries would not flourish if responsibility for policy remained with the Foreign Office. He cited economic statistics in support and suggested the FO should focus on diplomacy and security.

Hard Brexit
Anatole Kaletsky

The prospect of a Hard Brexit has a bonus. The economic damage will soon become so obvious that the UK government will face a backlash. As the economy sinks deeper into recession and difficulties proliferate, plans for Brexit may start to crumble.

EU leaders should insist on a binary choice. The UK must either disengage completely from the EU remain an EU member. At the same time, they should begin to reform the EU.

After Hard Brexit, UK trade with Europe would be subject to WTO rules. These require all members to be treated equally unless they are parties to a specific FTA. The UK and the EU would have to impose the same tariffs and restrictions on each other as they do to other WTO members.

British financial and service businesses would also face WTO rules. But EU regulations could easily be altered to ensure that most European financial activity was conducted on EU territory under EU law. The idea that London would remain the financial center of the EU is totally implausible.

Hard Brexit presents the entire EU project with an existential threat. Mainstream politicians across Europe would have to admit that disintegration of the EU or the EZ is possible. Already they face 34 separate demands for exit referendums in 18 other EU member states.

The EU will break up if it continues to resist change. An EU offer to start serious talks on reform would be hugely popular in Europe. If EU leaders listen to voters and learn to respond, British voters might be happy to remain in the union.

Mathematics Update


With a few days of work I raised my scores to level 3 in:

Number theory

Next — level 4.

Poole Bay, looking west from Canford Cliffs, 8.15 am Saturday


NASA plans to launch a mission
to Jupiter moon Europa in 2022.
A spacecraft will orbit Jupiter
and do close flybys of Europa,
which likely has a deep ocean
beneath its icy crust that
could host life.


F-22 Raptor
RIAT 2016

Museum Boijmans Van Beuningen
Hieronymus Bosch
The Wayfarer

The Messenger

Standard Model

Natasha Rostov
played by Lily James

War and Peace
Leo Tolstoy

AR The new BBC production
spurred me to reread the
book in the 2006 translation
by Anthony Briggs. Finished
late evening — excellent!

Half novel (one of the best
ever written) and half treatise
on the philosophy of history
(as interesting as Hegel and
much clearer), this book is
a landmark in human


2016 August 13

Is God Transgender?

Mark Sameth

I'm a rabbi, and so I'm particularly saddened whenever religious arguments are brought in to defend social prejudices — as they often are in the discussion about transgender rights.

The Israelite tetragrammaton YHWH was probably not pronounced Jehovah or Yahweh but in reverse as Hu/Hi — in other words, the hidden name of God was Hebrew for "He/She". The God of Israel was understood by its earliest worshipers to be a dual-gendered deity.

AR A useful corrective to a sexist tradition.

2016 August 11

UK Government: New Policy

Financial Times

Theresa May has made big changes to the cabinet in the wake of the EU referendum. She has also outlined a new direction for policy, adopting a more confrontational stance on Chinese investment and executive pay and signaling an enthusiasm for industrial policy.

May is building on the achievements of the coalition, which bore down on high executive pay and focused on building capacity in sectors where the UK has a competitive advantage. She seems to want to stick to the center ground. This is wise, given her slim majority in the Commons.

May needs to rebalance a now-fragile economy and recalibrate the UK relationship with Europe. She may be tempted to seek an explicit mandate from the British people, but now is not the time. She should govern in the interests of the whole nation.

UK Science: New Uncertainty

New Scientist

Following the Brexit vote, Theresa May must decide what she wants from the divorce settlement with the EU. The Royal Society and other UK national academies have issued science priorities. They want the government to commit to filling any gap in research funding left by Brexit and to keep EU regulations in areas such as clinical trials and data protection.

Researchers also need to remain free to cross borders to work and to collaborate as freely as they do now. The best research requires collaboration and free movement. In July, May wrote to the Royal Society: "I would like to reassure you about the government's commitment to ensuring a positive outcome for UK science as we exit the European Union."

2016 August 10

Mathematics Test


Several hours of clicking thru some fun online tests bagged the following:

Algebra (3)
Classical mechanics (2)
Discrete mathematics (2)
Electricity and magnetism (2)
Geometry (2)
Logic (2)
Number theory (2)

Levels in parentheses: Must raise them.

2016 August 9

A Brexit Chance: Diversify Europe

Leonhard Fischer

I suspect that the euro, rather than Brexit, poses the biggest risk to the EU. There is no real confidence in the future of the euro but the EU is in denial. The Brexit vote merely reflects this.

For the EZ to survive, a banking union and EZ guarantees are required at least. Germany will agree to this if EZ members relinquish aspects of their fiscal autonomy. The EZ must integrate further.

The EU needs to offer diverse models for its members. The single market can link these models. It is wrong to use the single market to enforce uniformity when the EU is about peace and prosperity.

The EZ must offer growth so that EU nations want to join it. EU nations that stay out of the EZ would adopt a minimum of EU standards and retain maximum national sovereignty.

Pound Worst Currency

CNN Money

Down about 12% since the start of the year and trading at its lowest level since 1985, the pound is doing worse so far this year than any other major currency. It has plunged 14% against the US dollar since the Brexit vote on June 23. Analysts expect it will drop further from current levels around $1.29.

AR Join the EZ and help reform the euro.

2016 August 8


Der Spiegel

At first glance, the European mood looks good: 80% of citizens in the 28 member states and 89% of Germans are satisfied with their lives. Personally too, most Europeans are satisfied: an EU average of two-thirds say their financial situation is good (Germans 82%) and 58% are satisfied with their job (Germans 68%). Many hope to do better next year.

Europeans seem happy but many are pessimistic about the big picture. Most say things in their home country and in the EU are going in the wrong direction. They are unhappy with the state of the economy and the labor market, and expect things to get worse.

In Britain a majority voted for Brexit. Individually the British are among the most satisfied Europeans. But overall they are so pessimistic that they want to move on — anywhere — just out.

In France the satisfaction level is near the EU average. But 90% are unhappy with the labor market, 85% say the economy in poor shape, and 76% think France is going in the wrong direction. The Front National might win the spring 2017 presidential elections.

In Germany most people are happy both personally and with the national economy. But most expect the labor market to get worse in future: 46% see Germany and 60% the EU as on the wrong course. This is bad news for the fall 2017 general election.

Altogether the European economy is stagnant, with the euro crisis far from over and Britain sinking into recession. In many countries, immigration and terrorism are the main reasons for pessimism about the economy. Populist politicians paint a gloomy picture and tell a persuasive story, whether it reflects reality or not.

Moving On Out

Charles Grant

Brexit will require at least six interlocking sets of negotiations:

1 Announcement: The EU-27 will want UK exit from the EU, as prescribed by Article 50, before the June 2019 European elections and will not extend the 2-year deadline.

2 An FTA on future economic ties with the EU along the lines of the CETA deal is likely. Britain would gain only limited access to the single market for services and London financial firms would lose their EU passport.

3 Interim cover for the UK before then: To repeal EU laws and shun European Court of Justice rulings, to limit free movement only to those with job offers, or to stop paying into the EU budget, the UK needs agreement from the EU-27.

4 Accession to the WTO: Britain is currently only a member of the WTO via the EU. The UK must agree with the EU-27 on the schedules, and then all 162 WTO members must agree. Any member could block UK membership.

5 Deals to replace the 53 FTAs that bind the EU and other countries. Those countries will not want to negotiate an FTA with the UK until they know what the EU-UK relationship looks like or until it is an WTO member.

6 Agreement: UK-EU ties in foreign and defense policy, police and judicial cooperation, and counter-terrorism will be easier as here the UK has more bargaining power.

The longer British ministers take to complete these negotiations, the worse the uncertainty for the British economy.

AR A series of fudges and failures awaits a UK poorly equipped and quite unprepared to go it alone. The British establishment has shot its bolt on this one. I say go back to square one and reconsider.

2016 August 7


Stephen Hawking

British people must learn to live outside the EU. We need to understand why they made the choice that they did. I believe that wealth, the way we understand it and the way we share it, played a crucial role in their decision.

Money can set individuals free, just as poverty can trap them. But a shift in behaviour is inspiring some groundbreaking new enterprises and ideas. Cathedral projects are being started by one generation with the hope that a future generation will take up the challenges.

We live in perilous times. Our planet and the human race face multiple challenges. These challenges are global and serious — climate change, food production, overpopulation, the decimation of other species, epidemic disease, acidification of the oceans.

If we fail, then the forces that led to Brexit will strengthen. If that were to happen, I would not be optimistic about the outlook for our species. We must broaden our definition of wealth and learn to share it more fairly.

Free Will Revisited

Sam Harris and Daniel Dennett
(podcast, 1 h 45 m)

AR Good review of what started years back as an ill-tempered exchange. Sam yearns for absolute truth in the jungle of neuroscientific causation whereas Dan appreciates the pragmatic value of robust solutions for life as we know it. Since neuroscience deconstructs me but I exist, Dan is right for me. Sam wants a more purist explanation of the first person — he just lacks a way to get it.

2016 August 6

Der Ring des Nibelungen

Roger Scruton

Richard Wagner situates the Viking gods in a German landscape, along with Siegfried, hero of the Nibelungenlied. The Ring Cycle is a story of the gods for people who have no gods to believe in.

Its theme is the death of the gods. The gods let us know and long for the sacred. Wagner implies that we must recognise sacred moments to live as free beings and to endow human life with significance.

Wagner came to believe that there could be no political salvation from the ills of civilization. Like Nietzsche, he saw resentment as the default position of human communities, and believed that each of us must achieve redemption for himself, through our capacity for love. The Ring cycle attempts to show that real love involves freedom, personality and sacrifice, with only momentary beauty and often a tragic end.

The power of the gods comes from our belief in them, and this belief must be naive, unquestioning and strong. Wagner distinguishes the consensual order, ruled by law, from the coercive order, ruled by treachery and violence. And caught between these two orders lies the narrow sphere of personal love.

Wagner says stop looking to politics for salvation. And stop expecting from love anything more than it demands, which is sacrifice. It is a harsh moral, but a true one.

2016 August 5

Der Ring des Nibelungen

Sue Prideaux

Richard Wagner understood that loss of faith in the divine demanded another route to meaning. He found it in ancient Germanic texts and used them to shape a new post-Christian cosmology. He chopped his epic poem The Ring of the Nibelung into four operas (16 hours of music) to tell the story of civilization from the beginning to modern times through his hero Siegfried, who fights for freedom and redemption.

The Ring took 26 years to complete, during which Wagner changed from Schopenhauer-driven atheist to mystically besotted husband of the hyper-religious Cosima, from anti-capitalist utopian to artist-prince financed by mad King Ludwig of Bavaria. Three kings and the Kaiser attended the premiere.

Wagner hammered his blockbuster allegory of the downfall of civilization brought about by the evils of capitalism and industrialization poisoning and polluting the natural world. Like Nietzsche, Wagner saw in the death of the old gods both unparalleled catastrophe and unparalleled opportunity to build a better society. Wagner believed that only art could redeem modern life.

The Ring of Truth
Roger Scruton

AR Amazon delivered my copy of Sir Roger's new book yesterday, along with the Solti recording of the Ring (16 CDs, Decca).

2016 August 4

Weak Gravity

New Scientist

To explain why the known particle masses are low enough to account for the weakness of gravity, Nima Arkani-Hamed and team suggest a new particle, the reheaton. After its birth, the universe inflated until it was cold and flat, and all the energy was locked up in reheatons. These decayed into the particles we know.

In the Standard Model, the Higgs has the lowest possible nonzero mass. Take N copies of this model, each with a slightly different mass for its Higgs boson. Varying the Higgs mass leads to big differences in the effects of gravity. In a universe with very massive or massless Higgs bosons, gravity is too strong or too weak for atoms to form. Only one Higgs mass is right for us.

For families with a Higgs mass just above zero, the reheatons decay into one Higgs boson and another particle for the remaining energy. For families with high Higgs boson masses, the reheatons decay into two smaller entities (instead of a Higgs) plus the remainder particle. Particles prefer to decay into fewer entities, so most energy goes into light-Higgs families, and very little to the others.

To account for weak gravity, fine-tune the equation for gravity by adjusting the number N. It seems N ~ 10^16 does the trick.

Nima Arkani-Hamed et al.

We present a new mechanism to stabilize the electroweak hierarchy. We introduce N copies of the Standard Model with varying values of the Higgs mass parameter. Ensuring that reheating deposits most of its energy into the lightest copy requires a modified cosmology.

AR Intriguing, but work in progress, I'd say.

2016 August 3

The Messenger

Kader Abdolah

AR Reading it today — to the end. The best account of the life of the Prophet I've read — highly recommended. Now I'm reading the author's translation of the Qur'an.

2016 August 2

May Error

Melanie Phillips

While she was home secretary, Theresa May set up an independent inquiry into the operation of Islamic law in the UK as administered by Sharia councils. May: "Some Sharia councils may be working in a discriminatory and unacceptable way ... contrary to the teachings of Islam."

The error is to think such harm is caused by anything other than Islamic law itself. Sharia holds that a woman's testimony is worth half that of a man; condones marital rape, forced marriage, and honour-based violence; and puts women into burqas. Sharia rulings on marriage, divorce, children, property, and inheritance violate fundamental human rights and equality for women. Sharia orders the harshest possible punishments for apostates, blasphemers, and homosexuals.

May suggested Sharia was one of various religious codes and practices that she said benefited British people of different faiths. In fact, Sharia entraps and enslaves many British people. Many British Muslims are anxious to live under the legal protection of human rights.

May Troika

Financial Times

Theresa May has deferred a decision on the £18 billion Hinkley Point power station to reconsider whether the French-Chinese financed project is in British national interests. May works on problems with her co-chiefs of staff Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, who worked with her at the Home Office. A minister said it was just the prime minister and two other people running the country.

May Staffer

Henry Mance

Theresa May's new joint chief of staff Nick Timothy criticized Chinese involvement in the Hinkley Point nuclear power station. In his recent writings, he

— supported Brexit: "If the country votes to leave, it would almost certainly be the British Government's policy to seek access to the Single Market ..."

— criticized China: "We do not have to accept dumping by the Chinese steel industry, in which state subsidies finance overcapacity and lead to prices lower than the real cost of production."

— criticized social liberalism and green taxes that are "far removed from — and sometimes run directly against — the interests of ordinary families"

— says recipients of tax credits "are not feckless benefits cheats, but millions of low-paid, hard-working people who are trying to do the right thing"

— wants an end to regime-changing military interventions. In Syria, he would come "to terms with unsavoury leaders including Assad, or at least members of his regime"

— likes stability instead of radical institutional shake-ups, and prefers improving management by rooting out incompetence in the police and poor governance in faith schools.

May Conservatism

Paul Goodman

One Nation Conservatism, attributed to Benjamin Disraeli, holds that Conservatives should govern the UK in the interests of the whole country, rich and poor.

Theresa May's new government will
— be more serious about One Nation
— seek to align foreign aid with the national interest
— tackle social justice issues
— seek to boost social mobility
— push for serious social reform
— build more homes
— promote apprenticeships and vocational training
— oppose more quantitative easing

2016 August 1

Asteroid Mission


OSIRIS-REx will travel to a near-Earth asteroid called Bennu and bring a small sample back to Earth for study. The mission is scheduled to launch September 8, 2016. As planned, the spacecraft will reach its asteroid target in 2018 and return a sample to Earth in 2023.

Economic Growth

William D. Nordhaus

For most of human history, economic progress moved at a crawl. From the stone age, to the earliest cities ten thousand years ago, through the Middle Ages, to the beginning of the Industrial Revolution around 1800, living standards doubled. Another doubling took place over the subsequent period to 1870. Then the world economy took off.

Conventional measures of economic growth omit some of the largest gains in living standards and underestimate economic progress. The standard measures do not include gains in health and life expectancy. Nor do they include the impact of technological revolutions such as the introduction of electricity or telephones or automobiles.

The century of progress in the United States after 1870 was economic. A rapid growth of output in the century to 1970 was followed by decades of slower growth. Productivity growth slowed sharply due to rising energy prices, growing regulatory burdens, a structural shift to lower productivity sectors, and a decline in major inventions.

Economists understate improvements in living standards. The growth of real income is understated because of flawed price indexes, and GDP omits aspects of economic activity not captured in market transactions. Also, including health status increases sharply the improvement in living standards over the last century.

AR We see a big global step change, from pre-industrial to post-digital lifestyles, still replacing traditional social forms worldwide. Some call it capitalism in action — I call it the arithmetization of value. I see this as part of a wider evolution of DNA life on Earth into MIR life. This evolution of a Lifeball is in turn part of a cosmic process by which mathematically determinate form crystalizes out of the primal flux.


Poole Bay, before 9 am, Sunday, July 31

Knight Frank
Surrey manor house,
6 bedrooms: £2.6 million
(Rolls not included)

AR Living in the past


"Great Trump speech,
America first! Stop wars!
Defeat the corrupt elites!
Protect our borders! Fair trade!
Couldn't have said it better!"
Former KKK grand wizard
David Duke

Ivanka, Donald

Theresa May meets
Angela Merkel
in Berlin

Photo: Adrian Dennis
Farnborough Airshow:
Eurofighter Typhoon


2016 July 31

Modern Slavery

Theresa May

As prime minister, I am setting up the first ever government task force on modern slavery. There has been good progress in the first year of the Modern Slavery Act that I brought forward as Home Secretary. But there is still further to go on raising awareness of these despicable crimes, improving training for those in our criminal justice system, and strengthening support for victims.

We need a new approach to defeating this vile and systematic international business model. We have played the leading role in getting the eradication of modern slavery into the Sustainable Development Goals. We will be using over £33 million from our aid budget to create an International Modern Slavery Fund focused on countries where victims are regularly trafficked to the UK.

The victims of modern slavery must go free. This is the great human rights issue of our time. I am determined to make it a national and international mission to rid our world of this barbaric evil.

2016 July 30


Gavin Jacobson

Friedrich Nietzsche had a systematic political theory. He saw the state originating from a conqueror with an iron hand, who seizes power violently and forces a hierarchy on the people. He favored a healthy culture in which philosophy and great art could be produced, and favored slavery to release a small number of Olympian men from the drudgery of daily existence to focus on high culture. His thinking on eugenics and democracy was based on theories of racial classification.

Nietzsche foresaw the privatisation of the state and how democracies give birth to aristocracies, herd morality, majoritarianism, and resistance to domination. He described how statesmen revive such pathologies as nationalism, racism, intellectual parochialism, and political insularity. He imagined the unification of Europe led by a cultural elite, the good Europeans, bred from Prussian military officers and Jewish financiers, who would create a new world culture.

2016 July 29

Prime Minister May

Raffy Marshall

Theresa May is Britain's first post-Thatcherite Conservative leader. Her conservatism will likely combine undisguised contempt for the cultural left's sacred cows with a neo-statist economic policy. Her 2015 party conference speech and her record at the Home Office suggest genuine concern about the economic and cultural impacts of high immigration. She shares the electorate's contempt for the self-congratulatory elite cosmopolitanism of the city and magic-circle law firms.

May has called for an industrial policy and worker representation on boards. A deficit reduction program that was quietly reducing the state share of the economy is likely to be largely abandoned. May will be attentive to the forgotten northern working class at whose expense the Thatcherite economic miracle was built. If Thatcherites sought to help Brits compete against the rest of the world, most Mayists find global competition terrifying and would prefer security.

Theresa May is not the establishment candidate and certainly not merely a safe pair of hands. She represents a challenge to ubiquitous cultural and economic elite assumptions. Aspects of her cultural and economic outlook suggest she would cheerfully sacrifice the British financial services industry in return for lower immigration. As some of their international friends depart and their bonuses diminish, the London elite may start to want their country back.

May's approach to immigration will sit uneasily with the left and right of the party. Moving toward a centrist economic position might unite left and right against the government. With a wafer thin majority, extremely difficult Brexit negotiations to conduct, and a deliberately exclusive cabinet, the government would soon be floundering. The obvious way to prevent this destabilisation is for May to restrain her advisers and moderate her break with the previous consensus.

May and Munich

Rebecca Coulson

Atrocities like the July 22 attack in Munich remind us that we spend too much time focusing on party political trivia. Our state representatives and institutions are entrusted with the difficult job of protecting us. And if the threat of this kind of attack continues to grow, all manner of new questions will arise for Britain, and for the wider European and global community.

The recent dominant Western view has been to celebrate unconditionally all forms of unification, movement and migration, and a developing plurality of values and views. We have assumed that the promotion of those ideals combines to form simply effected progressive aims that fit well with our tolerant society, and improve the lives of citizens here and elsewhere.

Theresa May will need to consider the disillusionment that feeds support for extreme politics and ideologies, failures to recognise and dilute radical influences, upcoming elections in America and Europe, and the EU responses to the refugee and EZ crises. How she deals with such threats will be as important as how she deals with the Brexit process.

2016 July 28

Elect Hillary Clinton


President Barack Obama called Trump a "homegrown demagogue." Michael Bloomberg dismissed him as a "con." And Vice President Joe Biden, in rejecting Trump, declared that "Americans have never, ever, ever, ever let their country down."

Obama cast the 2016 election as a choice between two visions for the country: "It's not just a choice between parties or policies, the usual debates between left and right. This is a more fundamental choice — about who we are as a people, and whether we stay true to this great American experiment in self-government."

Obama told delegates that no man or woman has ever been better qualified for the presidency than his former secretary of state: "Not me, not Bill, not nobody."

"Tonight, I ask you to do for Hillary Clinton what you did for me. I ask you to carry her the same way you carried me ... If you're serious about our democracy, you can't afford to stay home just because she might not align with you on every issue. You've got to get in the arena with her, because democracy isn't a spectator sport. America isn't about 'Yes he will.' It's about 'Yes we can.' "
Barack Obama

2016 July 27

UK and Ireland

Theresa May

Our discussions focused on Brexit:

Economic relationship: Trade between the United Kingdom and Ireland is worth almost £1 billion each week, supporting 400,000 jobs across our islands. To maintain the closest possible economic relationship in the future, we need to address a number of complex issues. We should take time now to study the options and to strive for practical solutions.

Common travel area: We benefitted from a common travel area between the UK and the Republic of Ireland for many years before either country was a member of the EU. Both of us want to preserve it and so we must now focus on securing a deal. We should continue our efforts to strengthen the external borders of the common travel area.

Peace process: It is in all our interests to work together to safeguard our national security. We are both fully committed to working together in support of the Northern Ireland Executive to build a better, stronger, safer future for the people of Northern Ireland. We have reaffirmed our commitment to establishing a new Independent Reporting Commission by the end of this year.

There are many issues to resolve.

2016 July 26

Brexit: The Movie

Daily Echo

AR In the Swanage Conservative club meeting room, some two hundred mostly young men in second world war British battledress, including tin helmets and hobnail boots, sat under a wartime portrait of Winston Churchill for a briefing before marching off to the shooting.

2016 July 25

God v Multiverse

Mary-Jane Rubenstein

If the universe began with a quantum particle blipping into existence, inflating into spacetime and a zoo of stuff, then why is it so well suited for life?

Modern physics supplies an answer. In the multiverse of many universes, all with different constants, we are here because we happen to be in one of the universes that works. No miracles, no plan, no creator.

Ptolemaic cosmology put Earth at the center of a succession of celestial spheres. Nicolaus Copernicus put the sun at its center. But a hundred years before Copernicus, Nicholas of Cusa had said the universe had no center. Start from any cosmic body, Cusa suggested, and the visible area around it is what we call a world.

Giordano Bruno said the universe is infinite because its creator is. There is no bit of God left over before or beyond or outside creation. This infinite universe is the source of all things, the life in all things, and the end of all things — or what everybody means by God.

2016 July 24

Trump A Danger

The Washington Post

Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump is uniquely unqualified to serve as president. A Trump presidency would be dangerous for the nation and the world.

It has been 64 years since a major party nominated anyone for president who did not have electoral experience. The lack of experience might be overcome if Trump saw it as a handicap worth overcoming. But he displays no curiosity, reads no books and appears to believe he needs no advice.

The Republican Party has moved the lunatic fringe onto center stage, with discourse that renders impossible the kind of substantive debate upon which any civil democracy depends. We have criticized the presumptive Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, but we do not believe that she represents a threat to the Constitution. Trump is a unique and present danger.

A Banana Republic

Fareed Zakaria

The Republican convention has been consumed by a vigilante rage. Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that Hillary Clinton deserves to be in jail. The picture presented to the world has been of America as a banana republic.

Donald Trump announced that he might not honor the NATO guarantee of security to European allies, practically inviting Vladimir Putin to destabilize Eastern Europe. That is a break not just with seven decades of Republican foreign policy but also with a core US commitment that has kept the peace since 1945. It is the most reckless statement made by a presidential candidate in modern times.

The Republican Party has given itself up to a single family and its business interests. Whatever happens, the Trump brand will come out of this election with even greater global celebrity.

2016 July 23

The Final Frontier


A new NASA Hubble Space Telescope mosaic image gives us our latest, deepest view of the universe. The map shows 1.2 million galaxies as they were were 6 billion years (Gy) ago.

NASA Frontier Fields lead astronomer Anton Koekemoer: "We basically use a cluster of galaxies as a natural gravitational lens, using effectively a natural telescope to amplify these distant galaxies much more than we've ever been able to do before."

Frontier Fields is a joint project combining data from Hubble, the Spitzer Space Telescope, and the Chandra X-ray Observatory. The goal is to learn more about the early universe by studying distant galaxy clusters using gravitational lensing of remote supernovas by the galaxy clusters.

Koekemoer: "Many of the key scientific results to come out of Hubble probably weren't even envisioned when it was being designed. There are always new areas that can be explored."

Researchers have used SDSS and BOSS data to measure galaxies in a spherical volume reaching back 6 Gy. They find the universe expands by 1% in each direction every 145 My. The James Webb Space Telescope, launching in 2018, will observe light redshifted beyond anything Hubble can see, from events soon after the Big Bang 13.8 Gy ago.

Koekemoer: "The Sloan Survey gives us our most detailed picture of what we call the intermediate distance universe, so these galaxies are distant but they aren't nearly as distant or early in the universe as what we see in these deep fields of Hubble ... You're really pushing back further into the early universe. It's very much like a final frontier quest."

2016 July 22

America Is Back

Donald Trump

My message is that things have to change — and they have to change right now. The crime and violence that today afflicts our nation will soon come to an end. Beginning on January 20th, 2017, safety will be restored.

Our convention occurs at a moment of crisis for our nation. The attacks on our police, and the terrorism in our cities, threaten our very way of life. Any politician who does not grasp this danger is not fit to lead our country.

We are going to build a great border wall to stop illegal immigration, to stop the gangs and the violence, and to stop the drugs from pouring into our communities.

This is the legacy of Hillary Clinton: death, destruction terrorism and weakness, but Hillary Clinton's legacy doesn't have to be America's legacy.

It is time to show the whole world that America Is Back — bigger, and better and stronger than ever before.

My Father

Ivanka Trump

Donald Trump is the person to make America great again. I have seen him fight for his family, for his employees, for his company. And now I am seeing him fight for our country.

My father not only has the strength and ability necessary to be our next president, but also the kindness and compassion that will enable him to be the leader that this country needs. He is color blind and gender neutral. When Donald Trump is in charge, all that counts is ability, effort and excellence.

As president, my father will change the labor laws put in place when women were not a significant portion of the workforce. He will make childcare affordable and accessible to all. He will fight for equal pay for equal work and I will fight for this too, right alongside of him.

When my father says he will make America great again, he will deliver.

2016 July 21

A British Crisis

Zadie Smith

The vote for Brexit has revealed a deep fracture in British society. The gaps between north and south, the social classes, Londoners and everyone else, rich Londoners and poor Londoners, and white and brown and black are real. Extreme inequality fractures communities.

After a while the whole edifice comes tumbling down. Everybody has been losing, but no one more than the white working classes who really have nothing, not even the perceived moral elevation of trauma or victimhood. And so many of them have chosen to be flagrantly, shamelessly wrong.

There has been a money madness in London for some time. The economically and socially disenfranchised of this nation are struggling and deeply unhappy. I believe that most of those who voted Leave did so out of anger and hurt and disappointment.

Britain is now in crisis. Rather than pull another veil over the mess, we might as well start trying to build from where we are. The rights and protections provided for the British people by Europe must not now be replaced by a nonsensical vision of British sovereignty.

2016 July 20

UK v EU: Not Over

Anatole Kaletsky

The dogma that referendums are sacrosanct is a travesty of true democracy. In genuine democracy nothing is ever irreversible, since every decision is always open to debate. This principle of continuous challenge must be restored quickly if Britain is to avoid a catastrophe.

Politicians and others need to begin a serious debate about the right balance between direct and representative democracy. The new government will have to find a way to preserve the main benefits of EU membership and then present the plan to voters. Political leaders from the rest of Europe will then have to show greater flexibility and a stronger instinct for EU preservation.

We need to challenge the assumption that democracy requires unquestioning obedience to a referendum result. The essence of democracy is the right to challenge and reverse majority votes. After every election, the defeated party becomes the official opposition, tasked to change the will of the people before the next election.

A referendum is a message directly from the people. But the UK is a representative democracy. Parliamentary representatives are entrusted with making decisions, because the will of the people is often inconsistent or erroneous or even dangerous.

Margaret Thatcher called referendums a device for dictators and demagogues. Germany excluded referendums from its postwar constitution. Democracy represents the diversity of individuals, each with changing opinions and motivations.

Efforts to keep Britain in the EU after the vote are as democratically legitimate as any other popular political movements. We need a campaign to secure a second referendum or general election to judge any new deal proposed by the government. The claim that referendums are irreversible and permanently binding is a parody of democracy — one man, one vote, one time.

UK v EU: Facing Reality

Vernon Bogdanor

Brexiteers said the EU was aiming for a federal superstate. But the EZ and migration crises have changed things. The EU is economically and politically too diverse to push for ever closer union.

The EU faced reality during the EZ crisis. The crisis was handled largely by the European Council, made up of heads of member state governments, rather than the European Commission, made up of technocrats. The EU must recognise the council as its supreme executive and the commission as its secretariat.

The EU must now face reality on freedom of movement. That principle was first outlined by six member states at a similar stage of economic development. It is unsuitable for 28 member states at different stages of economic development.

The EU needs to prove its value to its citizens. The British contribution was always to subordinate rhetoric to reality. Europeans need to rescue the EU from its elitist and technocratic establishment.

2016 July 19

Quantum Collapse

New Scientist

Quantum theory is our best theory of basic reality. The Schrödinger equation describes a wave function that gives reliable odds on which of many possibilities you will see if you take many measurements of identical objects. The Copenhagen interpretation says the act of observing reality collapses the wave function into a definite object. In 2011, an informal poll of 33 physicists attending a conference on quantum physics and the nature of reality found that over 40% accepted the Copenhagen view. Sean Carroll called it perhaps the most embarrassing poll in physics.

An objective collapse theory can solve the observer problem. A human observer meddling with a quantum system is bound to get entangled with it and collapse any uncollapsed wave function in it. Such a theory was worked out decades ago by Giancarlo Ghirardi and Tulio Weber. They tweaked the Schrödinger equation to make the wave function evolve naturally from a mixed states to a unique state. To do so, they added a nonlinear term to promote one state fast and a stochastic term to make this happen at random.

Daniel Sudarsky and Elias Okon have shown how objective collapse in the early universe would give rise to an uneven distribution of matter to form stars and galaxies. They say the rate of random wave function collapse could explain the information loss rate predicted for black holes. Since spontaneous wave function collapse makes a bit of energy, this process could solve the problem of dark energy. Objective collapse might also explain why the universe started in a state of extremely low entropy. The steady increase of entropy since then appears to us as the arrow of time.

AR I read a technical account of the Ghirardi-Weber theory in 1988 and found it interesting. Although it is rather heuristic in motivation, it shares this feature with much of physics. I am tempted to go for the full Copenhagen, with a new theory of subjectivity to steer clear of anthropology — the result is the psychophysics I aired in my 2009 book Mindworlds.

Schwetzingen Schlossgarten

Schwetzingen Schlossgarten 2016-07-16
AR Ein erfreulicher Urlaub in Deutschland: Hotel direkt neben diesem Garten, schöne Zeiten mit guten alten Freunden
und eine spektakuläre SAP Summer Summit 2016 auf dem SAP-Campus in Walldorf

Statement from Tony Blair
on Chilcot Report

Pound plumbs 31-year low
as Brexit impact bites
— falls under $1.28


Conservative leader and PM
vote among MPs, first round:

Theresa May 165, all the other candidates together 164

Pound hits new low
against dollar: $1.30

UK property funds halt trading
as Brexit contagion spreads

A Letter to Europe



2016 July 9

Reckless Folly

Richard Dawkins

Intricate webs of European cooperation built up over decades by British companies, institutions, universities, research establishments, galleries, employers of British skills and British labour are now wrecked. In many cases the work of patient decades is shattered beyond repair. The economic and human consequences are of incalculable magnitude.

There are stupid, ignorant people in every country. Most of them are not asked to take historically momentous and irrevocable decisions of state. It is unfair to thrust onto unqualified simpletons the responsibility to take historic decisions of great complexity and sophistication.

The prime minister recklessly gambled away the future of Britain and Europe. Lacking the courage to tell the yobs in his own party to take a running jump, he played Russian roulette with the future of Europe and the world. His decision to hold the referendum was a monstrously irresponsible gamble. His place in history is assured, but not pretty.

2016 July 8

America and Europe

Barack Obama

This may be the most important moment for our transatlantic alliance since the end of the cold war. Terrorist attacks, waves of migrants, Russian aggression, and the vote in the UK to leave the EU all raise questions about the future. We can meet these urgent challenges only if we stand united.

I am confident that the UK and the EU will be able to agree on an orderly transition to a new relationship. The special relationship between the US and the UK will endure. I have no doubt that the UK will continue to be a major contributor to European security.

Likewise, the US will continue to have an indispensable partner in the EU. US and EU cooperation will be essential to stimulating global growth and reducing inequality. Europe will remain a cornerstone of American engagement with the world.

While Brexit creates some uncertainty, our shared prosperity will continue to rest on the solid foundation of NATO. In Warsaw, we must reaffirm our treaty obligation to defend every NATO ally. NATO members must continue to invest more in our common defense.

Our nations are more secure when we stand together. We are united by our enduring commitment to shared values and strengthened by our rich diversity of backgrounds and faiths. We will prevail if we stay united, strong and true to our democratic values.

2016 July 7

Jews Reconsider UK After Brexit

The Independent

Brexit has led to a surge in the numbers of Britons seeking to become nationals of other EU states. Descendants of Jewish refugees who fled to the UK to escape from Nazi persecution are seeking German nationality.

German nationality is available to someone who has at least one German parent or who has lived for a certain period in Germany. For Jewish and political refugees from the Third Reich, the Grundgesetz says former German citizens who from 1933 to 1945 were deprived of their citizenship on political, racial, or religious grounds, and their descendants, can have their citizenship restored.

AR I shall seek a German passport.

DARPA Hack Bots


A $55 million hacking contest put on by DARPA called the Cyber Grand Challenge is set for August in a ballroom in Las Vegas. A visualization in arena view will show hack bots inside seven supercomputers, each running AI software that defends one machine and attacks the rest.

The supercomputers will stand on a clear plexiglass stage. The contestants, the seven teams that designed the bots, will watch the bots working inside the machines, analyzing and defending software and looking for security vulnerabilities, scrambling to patch those vulns and keeping their systems running. DARPA referees will watch the show too.

Finding and patching security holes was a human talent, but machines are taking over. Google is building sweeping systems that can identify vulns via fuzz testing, a technique that involves throwing random inputs at a piece of software. The system can simultaneously fuzz dozens of Android phones, and is using deep neural networks to learn what sort of fuzzing is likely to work.

DARPA wants bots that can identify and patch vulns in the moment, without human intervention. The Las Vegas audience will see when a bot finds a hole, when it patches the hole, when a bot breaks the service, and so on. The visualization can drill down and look at the streams of data in a trace view that shows the execution flow of a program on the data, like a debugger.

AR Reminds me of the good old days at SAP.

2016 July 6

Chilcot Inquiry Conclusions

Financial Times

Seven years and 2.6 million words later, the Chilcot report presents the UK role in the Iraq debacle as a set of collective failures. It concludes that Tony Blair's decision to go to war in 2003 was flawed.

Chilcot: "It is now clear that policy on Iraq was made on the basis of flawed intelligence and assessments. They were not challenged and they should have been."

The Joint Intelligence Committee headed by Sir John Scarlett was responsible for collating the intelligence and presenting it to ministers. MI6 had a responsibility to ensure that ministers "were informed in a timely way when doubts arose".

Blair is criticised for failing to tell the Commons the full intelligence assessment on the consequences of military action when he said Saddam Hussein constituted a "real and present" danger to UK and national security.

Chilcot: "The risks of internal strife in Iraq, active Iranian pursuits of its interests, regional instability, and al-Qaeda activity in Iraq were each explicitly identified before the invasion."

Disaster Capitalism

Howard Hotson

The referendum was manifestly won on the basis of misinformation. There are several plausible ways forward, yet all the Conservative leadership candidates are going for Brexit. An explanation can be found by extrapolating from a pattern evident in privatisations going back decades.

When the railways were privatised, the experts objected but the government pressed ahead anyway. When university finance was privatised, experts pointed out the problems but the government pressed ahead. When the government proposed to force all schools in England out of local authority control, its aim was to place the entire school system in private hands. When the near meltdown of the global financial system raised doubts about the entire system of global capitalism, the UK government simply cut back social welfare provision on a grand scale.

Advocates of leaving the European Union claimed that after a brief period of turmoil it would be fine. A vast chorus of experts disagreed, the referendum result delivered a global shock, and now UK affairs are in complete confusion.

Disaster capitalism operates by delivering massive shocks to the system and then using the ensuing period of anarchy, fear, and confusion to reassemble the pieces of what it has broken into a new configuration. UK politicians can now redraw the legal framework that will govern all aspects of our lives. They will find countless pretexts for emergency measures that benefit business and roll back the state during the current parliament.

AR Watching The Riot Club last night, I realised that the Brexit drama could have been scripted by establishment figures duped by disaster capitalists who aim to get rich at EU expense. Seriously, the key to all this is that government is the problem, not the solution. People must sort their own lives, not look to the nanny state to do it for them. Government is hobbled by its commitment to democracy. Big corporations are free to order themselves like totalitarian states, which given clear goals can be much more efficient. A parliamentary democracy should leave as much as possible to corporations and restrict itself to debating a framework of rules and goals for them. In this view, the EU is a dinosaur like the USSR, or rather a cash cow, ripe for a vampire squid.

2016 July 5

Juno Enters Jupiter Orbit

The New York Times

Juno is the second spacecraft to enter orbit around Jupiter. The NASA Galileo spacecraft spent eight years there surveying the planet and its moons.

Jupiter is believed to hold the keys to understanding the origins of our solar system. How much water it contains and the possible presence of a rocky core could reveal where in the solar system Jupiter was created and provide clues to the early days of other planets. Juno will measure the magnetic and gravitational fields of Jupiter and the microwave glow from within. A titanium vault will shield its crucial systems as it passes through the Jovian radiation belt.

Juno traveled within 5 Mm of Jupiter's cloud tops, passing through almost the exact spot that the navigators had aimed for after its 2.7 Tm voyage. After the engine burn, the spacecraft pivoted to turn its solar panels toward the Sun. Sunlight at Jupiter is 4% as bright as at Earth, and Juno's three 10 m long solar panels generate only 500 W to power the craft.

The spacecraft will have to make multiple flybys to start answering questions like whether there is a rocky core at the center of Jupiter. From polar orbit, the Juno cameras are likely to add to the number of known moons of Jupiter, now 67.

The cumulative radiation dose will take its toll on the electronics. As the mission progresses, the orientation of the orbits will pivot, and Juno will pass through more intense radiation.

On orbit 37, slated for 2018-02-20, Juno is to dive into Jupiter, ending the mission.


Theresa May

As UK home secretary, I have been the cabinet minister responsible for counter-terrorism for the past six years. I am a member of the National Security Council. At times of high alert, I am called upon to chair meetings of Cobra.

It is vital for our national interest that we maintain what is the most significant security and military capability in Europe. It is crucial that we maintain our independent nuclear deterrent. We need a full fleet of four submarines.

We should get on with it.


The Times

IMF head Christine Lagarde says the UK could lose up to 4.5% of growth by 2019 if it presses ahead with Brexit — but the EU could make the best of the vote by getting on with decisions unencumbered by British opposition. The prediction assumes Britain reverts to WTO status. If the UK remains part of the single market, the damage would be 1.5%.

Lagarde: "I have heard European commissioners, one after the other, say, this is so complicated, we can't do it because of the British ... I believe Europeans will come out of Brexit on top."

Steps to Brexit

David Allen Green

The political class in the UK has had a fright. They were not expecting to lose the EU referendum. So now there is a crisis — but only for a while.

Already the unwritten constitution may be saving the political class from their own folly and complacency. The referendum was never binding in law and was a glorified consultation exercise. The real decision had to be made afterwards, as a distinct legal act.

The prime minister was expected to make that decision on the day of the result. But he left it to his successor to make. The government may get away with this move because the Leave campaigners had no plan.

Unless a sincere Leaver becomes the next prime minister, the UK government can be expected to take three steps to slow down the Brexit process:

1 Snap the tie between the referendum result and the Article 50 notification.
2 Require some form of parliamentary vote.
3 Propose preconditions before further action.

Brexit becomes less likely as time passes. It may not happen at all.

Non to Frexit

Sylvie Kauffmann

For the French, the most visible consequence of the Brexit referendum is the return of Marine Le Pen. She is back with a vengeance and a huge grin. But France is not ready for Frexit.

France had a crucial role in creating the European Union. Postwar French leaders have constantly pushed to take Europe further as an instrument of power on the world scene. As Europe took shape, at every stage, the Franco-German tandem, the engine of Europe, was humming behind the scenes.

Europe had three pillars: France, Germany, and Britain. For France, Britain was a partner in its strategic vision of the world. With Brexit, one of the three pillars is gone, and France faces an uneasy marriage with a stronger Germany.

For the past 10 years, the European Union has failed its citizens. Over the past few days, European leaders have hastily identified three priorities to save their union: security, migration, and economic growth. Their failure can be overcome if European citizens regain a sense of the political and historical mission of the European idea.

Berlin on Brexit

Peter Altmaier

The result of the referendum was clearly in favor of withdrawal. That disappointed us, but we must respect it. But we can also see that the debate over how to handle the results is only just beginning. Wisdom demands that we wait and see the outcome of this debate.

I have always wanted Britain to be a strong member state in the EU, especially from a German perspective. The Brits must first decide if and when they want to submit a request to withdraw. No one knows what demands the new government will put forward.

British institutions should be allowed to reflect on the consequences of the referendum. The German constitution does not permit such referenda for good reasons. We will continue to be reserved at the federal level about plebiscites, especially if they have direct effects on other countries.

Globally, the EU has enormous allure and enjoys a great degree of respect. But there are different notions about how Europe should continue. Simply calling for more Europe is not enough.


The Atlantic

The Evolved Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (eLISA) is a physics experiment. eLISA relies on a stable configuration of three satellites 1 Gm apart (3 times the distance from the Earth to the Moon) at the vertices of an enormous equilateral triangle drawn by laser beams.

Within each satellite there is a set of tiny gold cubes in zero gravity. These free falling test masses will respond to the smallest disturbance in the fabric of spacetime, looking for gravitational waves.

Gravitational waves were first detected last year by LIGO and promise to open a new type of astronomy. European Space Agency mission eLISA is LIGO in space. It should offer gravitational sensitivities beyond anything possible on Earth.

Kip Thorne: "We are opening up a window on the universe so radically different from all previous windows that we are pretty ignorant about what's going to come through. There are just bound to be big surprises."


Telegraph Video
Memorial service for the
76th anniversary of the
Battle of Britain: Spitfire
and Hurricane fly-past

AR Expect more of such
nationalism after Brexit.

Nigel Farage resigns as UKIP
(but not as MEP):
"I have done my bit."

AR Done too much.

A Wake-Up Call
Francesca Barber

I was born in America,
my parents are English,
I was schooled in Brussels.
The shocking outcome of
the British referendum has
challenged the foundation of
my understanding of who
I am and my place in the world.
It was a rejection of the sense
that our differences are less
important than our shared
experiences, a wake-up
call for British youth.

Jeremy Clarkson

At work recently we had
a vote and decided to invest
a considerable sum of money
in a new venture that within
a week we could see was
not going to work.
We all sat around wailing
and gnashing our teeth
until someone had
a brilliant idea.
"I know," he said.
"Let's have another vote."
So we did, and as a
result financial ruin
was averted.


2016 July 4

"Welcome to Jupiter!"


NASA Jet Propulsion Lab, Pasadena, California, shortly before 9 pm Pacific Daylight Time:
The NASA Juno mission completed its main engine burn and entered orbit around Jupiter.

NASA Science Mission Directorate acting administrator Geoff Yoder: "This is phenomenal."

UK to Slash Corporate Tax Rate

Financial Times

UK chancellor George Osborne plans to slash corporation tax to less than 15% to woo business to invest in Brexit Britain: "We must focus on the horizon and the journey ahead and make the most of the hand we've been dealt."

His move will anger EU finance ministers who fear a race to the bottom. The OECD tax head warned that the fallout from Brexit "may push the UK to be even more aggressive in its tax offer" but that further steps in that direction "would really turn the UK into a tax haven type of economy".

AR Bullingdon boy George gives billionaires a break at the expense of the plebs.

UKIP Plot to Install New PM?

The Times

Theresa May supporters accuse UKIP of trying to steal the Conservative crown for Andrea Leadsom. A big UKIP donor swung behind her leadership campaign after she promised to trigger formal Brexit more quickly than her rivals. This has won her huge support among hardline Brexiteers. Conservative MPs start tomorrow to cut a field of five candidates down to two for a ballot by party members.

German Cheer for Scotland

Hamish Macdonell

German economy minister and vice-chancellor Sigmar Gabriel says Scotland can join the EU as an independent country. He said the EU would certainly accept Scotland as a member in its own right if the country left the UK and wanted to join the EU.

SNP spokesman: "These comments highlight the goodwill there is towards Scotland in the EU. Our focus is on the negotiations that lie ahead, to protect Scotland's relationship with the EU and our place in the single market."

General Election Before Brexit

Nick Clegg

The Conservative party has caused the greatest constitutional crisis in modern times. The party of business is now the source of reckless economic turmoil. The natural party of government is now presiding over paralysis in Westminster and Whitehall. The party is now letting Britain drift.

The government has no leadership, no plan, no consensus, and no clue about what to do next. All it wants is to leave the EU. Hedge fund owners want to turn the City into a tax haven and Brexiteers witter about staying in the single market but shirking its rules. We need a general election.

Der Spiegel am Montag

René Pfister

Das Votum der Briten ist so etwas wie der inoffizielle Startschuss für den Bundestagswahlkampf. Während Martin Schulz die Kommission in Brüssel zu einer Art europäischen Superregierung ausbauen will, findet Finanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble, dass zur Not die Nationalstaaten die Sache in die Hand nehmen sollten. Und die Kanzlerin hofft darauf, dass die Briten sich besinnen und am Ende doch noch davon absehen, aus der EU auszusteigen.

Die Queen riet ihrem Volk, "ruhig und gefasst" zu bleiben. Es ist ganz und gar unüblich, dass sich die Queen ins politische Tagesgeschäft einmischt. Aber wozu braucht es eigentlich ein Staatsoberhaupt, das selbst dann zum Schweigen verdonnert ist, wenn die Regierung purzelt, die Opposition sich zerlegt und Schottland darüber nachdenkt, eigene Wege zu gehen?

Waiting for Gödel

Siobhan Roberts

In 1975, Kurt Gödel was awarded the National Medal of Science. Nicknamed Mr Why by his parents, Gödel was known to some of his admirers as God. His 1931 masterpiece was his incompleteness theorem: There is more to truth than can be caught by proof. Within any given system, there are claims which are true but which cannot be proven to be true.

This June, a group of Gödelians convened for a crash course in incompleteness in Brooklyn. The students included a computer scientist, a nutritionist, a philosopher, an ad man, and a teacher who had spent a lonely winter reading Douglas Hofstadter's Gödel, Escher, Bach.

London professor and Facebook engineer Peter O'Hearn: "Gödel's theorem has a major impact on what all computer scientists do. It puts a fundamental limit on questions we can answer with computers."

AR My second thesis (Oxford 1976) was on the implications of Gödel's theorem for mathematics. I read Hofstadter's book in Japan in 1981.

Dice With 120 Sides

Siobhan Roberts

Earlier this year, at a mathematical conference in Atlanta, two scientists from the Dice Lab débuted a die with a 120 sides. The d120 is 5 cm in diameter and 90 g in weight, and is technically a disdyakis triacontahedron. Its face numbers are distributed so that any two opposing sides sum to 121. Each of its 62 corners boasts equanimity, too. For example, a vertex at which 10 triangles meet sums to 605, which is 10 times the average of all the numbers on the die.

AR My first thesis (London 1974) was on the logic of probability, as applicable to dice throws.


Anil Ananthaswamy

The slogan ER = EPR hints at a connection between two parts of physics first investigated by Albert Einstein. His general theory of relativity says gravity is the warped geometry of spacetime and implies black holes have entropy. Quantum theory he attacked in a paper with Boris Podolsky and Nathan Rosen, arguing that entanglement was preposterous.

Juan Martín Maldacena conjectured that string theory equations describing gravity in some volume of spacetime are dual to a set of quantum equations describing the surface of that volume. He gave an example based on a paper by Einstein and Rosen showing how two apparently separate black holes might be connected inside. He showed that an Einstein-Rosen bridge or wormhole would only form if the outsides of the black holes were entangled. This links quantum mechanics and spacetime.

Mark Van Raamsdonk explored further. If you slowly reduce the amount of entanglement between two black hole surfaces to zero, the wormhole becomes thinner until it breaks, leaving two unconnected bits of spacetime. He infers that spacetime is a geometrical manifestation of entanglement. It may also be a manifestation of quantum information.

Black holes emit Hawking radiation. If nothing new falls in, a black hole will eventually evaporate. But matter is information, and in quantum theory it can never be destroyed. If information escaped with the radiation, a Hawking particle on its way in would have to entangle with all other Hawking particles that left the black hole at all earlier times as well as its partner outside the horizon. This offends the monogamy of entanglement. But without polygamy a blazing firewall of radiation forms at the event horizon, contradicting general relativity — paradox.

Quantum monogamy says three quantum systems cannot all be entangled at the same time. But if the particles just inside the horizon and the particles far away are connected via a wormhole, one must lie to the future of the others. So they are not all entangled at the same time — paradox gone.

AR I groped at such links between spacetime and entanglement in my 2006 paper About Time (Mindworlds 13). Recently I have neglected these ideas.

2016 July 3

Brexit Aftershocks

Der Spiegel

David Cameron gambled away British EU membership and history has moved on. The vote for Brexit has set the stage for the next big power struggle within the EU: more Europe versus less Europe.

Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Parliament President Martin Schulz want more. Schulz: "If we let the British play games with us, the entire EU will fly apart."

Most European heads of state and government, led by Angela Merkel, want less: Treat the British amicably, don't rush them and play for time. And choke off all efforts aimed at more Europe.

Schulz and Juncker have long been working toward limiting the influence of European heads of state and government in the EU. In May, the two pledged to join forces to ensure greater powers for the EU. It was a pact against Merkel.

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble wants to improve EU-27 cooperation and cohesion. He wants completion of the single market and the free movement of capital, plus agreement on economic growth and external border control.

Sunday — French president François Hollande wants to get rid of the UK as quickly as possible. He says the EU must be clear about what leaving entails. Brexit increases French influence in the EU.

Monday — Merkel and Holland meet in Berlin with Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi. They say proposals for further EU development in the areas of security, employment, youth, and EZ cooperation should be presented by September. Merkel addresses the German parliament: no secret negotiations with the UK before it officially applies for withdrawal and no cherry picking by London. But give them time.

Tuesday — EU leaders meet for the last supper with Cameron.

Wednesday — EU heads of state and government will take the lead in Brexit negotiations. Junker says that is his responsibility, but they say they have been elected and he hasn't. They agree on no changes to European treaties, no convention, no fundamental modifications to the EU, and no deepening of integration.

— Merkel defeats Schulz and Juncker for the idea of Europe as a collection of nation states.

— Polish Law and Justice party head Jaroslaw Kaczynski wants more Europe in foreign and security policy. He wants a European army and a strong European president. Many governments in eastern and central Europe agree with him.

— Governments in southern Europe want to see greater public investment, such as an EZ budget under European Parliament control.

— Countries like Sweden and Germany want a joint asylum system, with a fair distribution of refugees throughout the EU. This too would lead to more Europe.

AR The UK is fundamentally out of step with all this. Long live the EU.

How to Revive European Union

The New York Times

One critique of the EU is that it is not democratic. European Council decisions are subject to political compromise and rarely reflect national preferences directly. The European Commission negotiates trade agreements, enforces antitrust rules and proposes legislation, but its president is selected by the European Parliament, which is weak. Reforms could include making the parliament more central in decision making and letting Europeans directly elect the president of the commission.

Nationalists will rail against greater European unity, but addressing the refugee crisis will require it. EU leaders made the crisis worse by leaving Italy and Greece to handle it on their own with little assistance. A long overdue European border and coast guard operation will help manage migration and security. Officials need to centralize the registration and screening of refugees.

Another big challenge is the weakened EU economy. Some countries, like Greece and Spain, have suffered such a steep decline in living standards that a full recovery could take decades. Even in countries like France and Italy, unemployment rates are still way too high. In Britain, median wages surpassed their pre-crisis level only last year. The EU could strengthen its economy by restructuring the debt of weaker countries and increasing public spending.

AR If Europe had still been a collection of separate nation states, mass immigration would have led to armed conflict by now. The national economies would be crippled by red tape at borders and citizens would suffer permanent austerity inside their police states. They would dream of European integration as paradise.

A Dutch View

Geert Wilders

European political leaders are allowing asylum seekers and migrants to come to us. They're spending billions of euros on them. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states should take care of these people.

I want to close the Dutch borders. I don't have a problem with people from Slovakia and Lithuania. But I do have a problem with immigration from Islamic countries.

We will decide who we allow into our country and who we will outlaw. Immigration from non-Western immigrants costs our state €7.2 billion annually, much more than closing the borders and visa limitations would.

We have a million Muslims in the Netherlands. As long as they obey the law and respect the constitution, nobody has anything to fear. But when somebody has dual citizenship and commits a crime, his Dutch passport should be revoked and he should be deported.

Islam is an imperialist ideology like communism or fascism. Islam wants to destroy us and I want to prevent it. I will not stop fighting against Islam until I have achieved freedom for our country.

AR Fight imperialist Islam at the European level. Close ranks and fight together.

Brexit Will Still Hurt

Niall Ferguson

Brexit probably won't happen for years yet. There is no evidence to dismiss predictions that the UK would suffer a recession if it left the EU. The vote alone has triggered an instant 10% drop in the exchange rate.

The vote was no revolt against the elites. The Tory leadership contest is like Oxford student politics. Oxford graduates David Cameron and George Osborne were defeated, then one former president of the Oxford Union debating society (Gove) knifed another (Boris Johnson), while a former Oxford Union treasurer (Nicky Morgan) decided to back Gove against a former Oxford Union returning officer (Theresa May), who is married to a former Oxford Union president. The shocking truth about British politics is this: heads, Oxford wins; tails, all other universities lose.

The big division exposed by the referendum was between the generations. Not only were the elderly much more likely than the young to back Brexit, they were also much more likely to vote.

AR At Oxford I studiously avoided student politics. Now I see there's no escape!

Ein gepflegter Ausraster britischer Schnösel

Die Welt

Selten haben sich Angehörige der britischen Elite so verzockt wie David Cameron und Boris Johnson beim Brexit. Die Erklärung dafür liefert womöglich der Club, dem beide als Studenten angehörten.

Sehr britisch, diese Nobel-Uni von Kotzford!

Die Welt

The Riot Clubder Film über Hooligans in Nobel-Uni-Uniformen. Vorbild war ein Club, dem auch David Cameron angehörte.

AR The Bullingdon boys trashed Britain — thanks, chaps!

Ray Tang/Rex/Shuttercock
London, Saturday: Thousands of anti-Brexit demonstrators marched from Park Lane to Westminster.

AR A vibrant democracy is not always a cricket match played to Westminster rules. On a question of existential importance,
the people may take to the streets, as many have done here, and overturn a majority that was achieved by foul means.
Governments are elected to serve the people, not fool them with party political games that shame our country.

AR Poole Park, June 7
— an age ago!

The Great War
Daniel Finkelstein

Both my grandfathers fought
in WW1. They were moderate
and patriotic men whose
memories my family holds
dear. They survived years
of fighting and came home
with medals for bravery.

As we commemorate British
war dead I bow my head. But
during the moments of silence
I recall this: My grandfathers
were on the German side.

Kazuo Ishiguro

We must think and act coolly.
The UK will not gain access
to the single market without
allowing free movement of
people. Do we as a nation
hate foreigners sufficiently
to deny ourselves access
to the single market?

"We need to confront
what kind of country
we want to live in."
Ed Conway

"Time does not exist.
Time exists for us."
Carlo Rovelli


2016 July 2

UK Still in Deficit in 2020

Financial Times

UK chancellor George Osborne has had to abandon his goal of reaching a budget surplus by 2020. The Brexit vote has torn up his economic plan and continues to convulse world markets.

British government bonds traded in negative territory. The FTSE 100 closed up on Friday but the FTSE 250 closed down compared to referendum day. The pound also ended the week down.

Osborne: "The government must provide fiscal credibility so we will continue to be tough on the deficit but we must be realistic about achieving a surplus by the end of this decade."

The Biggest Blunder

Andrew Marr

The decision for Brexit is its single biggest democratic act in modern times. But it is also a historic blunder, provoked for the wrong reasons and then pursued in the biggest establishment cock-up in my lifetime.

The cock-up started in 2012, when David Cameron and his closest political allies decided that the only way of scuppering UKIP and the Euro-hostile right of the Conservative party was to give the British people a referendum. Cameron decided to put party management and tactics ahead of grand strategy, grossly overrated his own negotiating skills, and has been badly bitten in the bottom accordingly.

The British political class has come close to destroying itself. My guess is that parliamentary chaos and a sense of drift will propel us into an election later this year or next. There is plenty of anger still to come.

Brexit Warns America

Anne Applebaum

The true impact of Brexit will not be visible for many years. The slow agony of the divorce proceedings will take up precious political time and energy in London and other European capitals. The UK will turn further in on itself, so British energy and talent will not be dedicated to solving bigger problems. Money will not be spent and opportunities will be lost.

Other European countries may now face political instability as well. Not just in the smaller European nations but also in France, the Netherlands, Italy, and possibly even Germany, the political scene may shift dramatically. Again, much of the damage will be invisible, taking the form of things that will not happen.

This referendum campaign was unique. Identity politics trumped economics. Arguments about independence and sovereignty defeated arguments about British influence and importance. The advice of institutions was ignored. Elected leaders were swept aside. If all that can happen in the UK, it can happen in the United States too.

Brexit Backlash

David Runciman

University towns voted overwhelmingly for Remain. But now the people whose sense of security and wellbeing has been shredded by the knowledge economy have taken their chance to answer back. The gap between the winners and losers in the new economy has been laid bare.

The economic winners find themselves on the losing side. In economic terms they still have plenty to lose, and populism will not hold much appeal. My sense is that underlying the voter demographics behind the result is the basic gap that now exists between people who can imagine a viable future for themselves in a networked world, and those who cannot.

The digital revolution reveals a future in which knowledge is the primary currency, connectivity the primary asset, and physical geography at best a secondary concern. People who are rooted in particular places, who work in industries that produce physical goods, and whose essential social interactions do not happen online are the ones who wanted Out.

The referendum result represents a rejection of the power of elites. The tragedy is that it has undermined one of the few institutions that operates on a scale that might limit the power of those elites. It shows that real people still have the power to surprise faceless networks.

Brexit Britain: Elites Run Amok

Deborah Orr

A week on from the referendum, no one knows who will be taking back democracy for us. But public money will be squandered on disentangling the UK from the EU and getting the elites the trade deals they want. When the government limits free movement, the islanders will have to buckle down.

Conservative MPs will spend the summer deciding which two candidates for leader and prime minister they will ask their membership to choose between. Then democratic accountability will be restored to sovereignty. With EU protection gone, our dysfunctional democracy will be all we have.

AR We voters broke it, we voters must fix it.

2016 July 1

Exit From Brexit

Markus Becker and Dietmar Hipp

A campaign to stop Brexit is gaining ground. Organised opponents are lining up their arguments:

1 The betrayal argument: The day after the vote, Leave campaign leaders disavowed central promises and the market reaction confirmed the fears of Remain campaigners. Voters felt betrayed.

2 The democracy argument: The result was too narrow. If millions of Leave voters were to change their mind in the next few weeks, it would be hard to ignore them. Leave campaigners lied to them.

3 The legal argument: The referendum is not legally binding. David Cameron was moved to call it not by the public interest but by party interests. Brexit is arguably a disproportionate response to a narrow majority.

Before the UK government enacts Brexit, experts say it must get the consent of Parliament.

Wir erwarten von London einen Fahrplan

Frank-Walter Steinmeier

Ich bin überrascht, wie wenig vorbereitet Großbritannien ist. Was mich am meisten ärgert, ist, dass die beiden Hauptkontrahenten bei den Tories aus einem zunächst nur innerparteilichen Konflikt eine ausgewachsene Staats- und Regierungskrise in Großbritannien gemacht und damit auch der ganzen EU Schaden zugefügt haben, nun aber die Verantwortung für die Folgen anderen überlassen.

Was wir von London erwarten, und zwar zügig, ist ein Fahrplan, wann die Verhandlungen über den Ausstieg mit der EU beginnen sollen und wie die Briten sich diese Verhandlungen vorstellen. Weitere Verzögerungen wären nicht wünschenswert, und sicher auch schädlich, für die Briten selbst und auch für uns in Europa. Es kommt jetzt darauf an, Europa zusammenzuhalten.

AR In short, foreign minister Steinmeier expects a plan from London as soon as possible. Delay would damage not only the UK but also EU member states.

A Nation in Peril

Tony Blair

The most important decision taken by the UK in many decades has left the country deeply divided. The question is how to unite, how to protect and advance the national interest, and what is the right future relationship with Europe.

This will not be easy. Leave elation is matched by a profound dismay in the ranks of Remain voters, and in the case of younger voters anger. To come safely through this we need adult politics.

The European Parliament has to agree any new deal for Britain. There is going to be a negotiation of extraordinary complexity where there are a thousand devils in every detail. This needs serious statesmanship.

The EU-27 could decide to deter other secessionist movements. We the British people will be face to face with our new reality.


Carlo Rovelli

Art has the ability to open our eyes to a different perspective on the world. Physics does the same thing. It opens our eyes to something new, more wide and true.

Science is the best tool we have. One should distinguish the actual job of doing physics, solving problems, learning how to do equations, from the sheer beauty of what physics is actually describing. The results can be appreciated by everybody.

In trying to understand quantum gravity, we find that there is no time at the fundamental level. Instead of time, there is only the change of things with respect to one another. Our feeling of passing time is due to our imperfect knowledge of the world.

Nature is so complex. If we learn to move from thinking of the world as an ensemble of distinct things to thinking of it as a network of interconnected processes, we will grasp it better.

AR I make time.
Battle of the Somme, 1 July — 18 November 1916: What happens when European solidarity fails

Alliance of the angry
deserves a second vote

David Aaronovitch


"This has been a
miscalculation of gigantic,
historic proportions."
Radek Sikorski

AR Radek is right.

Today, the danger
of some sort of a nuclear
catastrophe is greater than
it was during the Cold War
and most people are
blissfully unaware
of this danger.
William J. Perry

"There can be no democratic
choice against the European
Jean-Claude Juncker

"The United Kingdom will not
be the last member state to
leave the European Union."
Nigel Farage

Germany, France, and Italy
give London more time
but reject informal
talks on future

Global markets lose record
$3 trillion since Brexit vote

UK credit rating
from AAA
to AA

Leave UK and relocate
somewhere else in the EU:
Maybe Germany is the
place for you.

AR Yes it is.

"My Polish father-in-law did
more for Britain than any
graffiti-spraying racist."
David Taylor

"Austerity is the cause
of our economic woes. It's
nothing to do with the EU."
Mariana Mazzucato

BoJo, June 9
BoJo now vows to keep
UK in Single Market

Euro Trade

London is the financial
capital of Europe. Most global
trading in euros is in London.
Britain stopped the ECB from
forcing some of that business
into the EZ. Now the ECB
may try again.

Gabriel: Press UK
German SPD leader
Sigmar Gabriel demands
that Angela Merkel press
the UK harder to exit EU
as soon as possible.


Rise in Racism

A Polish community center
was daubed with racist graffiti
and far-right demonstrators
chanted abuse outside a
mosque amid a surge in
hate crimes following
the referendum vote.

Baroness Warsi said the
atmosphere on the streets
of Britain was not good.

Be Like Greece —
Ignore the Referendum!

"The key Leave campaigners
made contradictory promises
to the British people."
Philip Hammond

"They told us it was Project
Fear but you can see already
that it is Project Reality.
And all we got in the campaign
was people saying the governor
of the Bank of England and the
Treasury were peddling false
information. That was
pretty shocking."
No. 10 official

Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders

"It's the last thing I want
to see. It's not a game
of the best of three."
Nigel Farage


2016 June 30

Brexit News

The Guardian

Boris Johnson says he will not stand to be PM after his fellow Beleaver Michael Gove, the party intellectual, said he did not think Boris could be leader so he was standing instead. Supporters accused Gove of treachery.

Theresa May launched her bid to be leader and promised no general election before 2020. Liam Fox, Andrea Leadsom, and Stephen Crabb complete the list for the leadership election.

Jeremy Corbyn got into trouble at the launch of a report into anti-semitism in the Labour party when he said: "Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for the actions of Israel or the Netanyahu government than our Muslim friends are for those various self-styled Islamic States or organisations."

We can make Britain work for everyone

Theresa May

Today I launch my campaign to become the leader of the Conservative party and prime minister
of the UK:

1 Our country needs strong, proven leadership to steer us through this period of economic and political uncertainty, and to negotiate the best possible terms as we leave the EU.

2 We need leadership that can unite our party and our country. It is the patriotic duty of the Conservative party to govern in the best interests of the whole country.

3 We need a positive vision for the future of our country that works not for a privileged few but for everyone, regardless of who they are and regardless of where they're from.

I favour big changes to the way we think about our economy, our society and our democracy. We believe in capitalism, but we need to reform it.

We need to think differently about the role of the state. We have to cherish institutions like the BBC and the NHS. And we have to restore the contract between the generations.

Under my leadership, we will put ourselves at the service of ordinary, working people and we will strive to make Britain a country that works for everyone.

AR Excellent: Count me in.

EU Democracy

Amanda Taub

Leavers say the EU is elitist and undemocratic. The reality is more complicated. Technically, the EU has quite a lot of democracy going on.

The European Parliament is directly elected. Every five years, every adult EU citizen can vote for a representative. EU treaties define 751 seats. The Council of the EU is the upper house, with representatives sent by the governments of member states.

The two houses appoint civil servants and members of groups such as the European Council. These officials are both powerful and unelected. This is much like in many democracies.

Democracy is also about accountability. The EU was designed by technocrats and lets experts make sound decisions that rise above nationalist politics. To protect it from populists, there is no easy way to call them to account.

The EU does not feel very democratic. Its decisions seem remote, its leaders unreachable. When people are unhappy with EU decisions, they blame the bureaucrats.

Brexit may be unlawful

Philip Allott

Brexit would consist of two acts performed by the government. These acts are subject to legal evaluation. The government decides that the UK will withdraw from the EU and then it notifies the European Council of that intention.

The government acts in question are exercises of legal powers, which have limits. A legal power of the UK government affects the legal situation of many people, so the courts are firm in keeping the government within legal limits.

A directly affected person can request that a court conduct a judicial review to determine whether the exercise of a public power on a given occasion is within the limits. All public power is subject to the law applied and enforced by the regular courts. The ultimate guardian of the rule of law is a government minister.

A person might challenge the actions of the government in the process leading up to the Referendum Act 2015 on the ground that the motive for holding the referendum seems to have been not the public interest but the particular interest of a political party. A court can decide that it is arbitrary and unreasonable and disproportionate to base the decision to withdraw from the EU on the opinion expressed by a bare majority of people taking part in a referendum.

To withdraw from membership of the EU, the government is using the powers contained in article 50, which leaves the legality of a withdrawal decision to national law. An unlawful decision under UK law would be invalid for the purposes of article 50.

John Kerry: Brexit could be 'walked back'

The Guardian

US secretary of state John Kerry visited David Cameron and said he was loth to invoke article 50 or to start negotiating a thing he doesn't believe in, and has no idea how he would do it — "and by the way, nor do most of the people who voted to do it."

Asked if the Brexit decision could be "walked back" Kerry said: "I think there are a number of ways. I don't, as secretary of state, want to throw them out today. I think that would be a mistake. But there are a number of ways."

Frexit 1

Robert Zaretsky

The next crisis to confront the EU will be Frexit. The inability of French governments to redress the growing social and economic fissures in French society has encouraged a retreat to nativism and nationalism.

French president François Hollande has a dismal approval rating — according to a recent Le Monde poll, just 16% of French voters agree he is a "good" president.

In the wake of the Brexit vote, FN leader Marine Le Pen stood in front of a new poster displaying a pair of hands breaking free of a handcuff made of gold stars with a caption: "And Now France!"

Frexit 2

Anne-Sylvaine Chassany

On Saturday, François Hollande sat with Marine Le Pen at the Elysée Palace. The FN leader said she wanted an EU referendum. Hollande: "What would be the question?" In or out, she replied. "Out of the EU or the eurozone?" Of the EU, she confirmed.

AR Frexit would destroy the entire European order.

2016 June 29

Angela Merkel on Brexit

Ulrich Speck

German chancellor Angela Merkel has several views on Brexit:

1 She may be quietly hoping that the referendum can be reversed. Similar things have happened several times in EU history. She may be playing for time against those who want a quick Brexit.

2 She will minimise the damage if it goes ahead. She must protect the EU and sees a risk if Britain gets a good deal. Access to the single market will require respect for freedom of movement.

3 She sees UK membership as a counterweight to French dirigisme. Support for the EU is high in Germany but not in France. French president François Hollande needs to show his voters that exit is not an option, so he is inclined to punish Britain.

4 She sees the EU as an instrument of nation states and does not see it evolving toward the United States of Europe. In her view, Brexit would be a huge loss.

5 She knows the economic impact of Brexit would be damaging. After the US and France, the UK is Germany's #3 trading partner, but the terms of trade between EU-27 and a lone UK are unknown.

6 She fears Brexit could lead to a decline of European influence on the global stage, especially with regard to China. It would also make the EU a less attractive partner for the US.

Merkel does not want a divorce that destroys trust and humiliates Britain.

Brexit on Ice

Sebastian Fischer

Angela Merkel gave a speech about Brexit. Everything she said was correct. The address was undramatic and objective, Brexit on ice.

Brexit is an historical watershed in the history of Europe. People across the continent are searching for answers. Business as usual is not enough. Merkel should:

1 Push the pace
The British can choose when they apply to leave the union but they should get on with it, before they are tempted to block even more EU proposals.

2 Use the opportunity to relaunch the EU
With the British out the future EU will be different, so an opportunity for radical change has presented itself.

3 Boost an inspirational Europe
The EU is much more than a service provider for European citizens, whatever Merkel says.

Speed, change, and emotion — all lacking in her speech.

EU Migration

Francis Elliott

David Cameron told EU leaders last night that they must allow migration curbs if they want a future deal with Britain over the single market. He said refusal to reform freedom of movement rules during his renegotiations this year led to the British decision to leave the EU.

A UK government source: "He believes that one of the key issues in the referendum campaign, and therefore why a lot of people voted to leave, was this sense that there was no control on the scale of immigration or free movement."

Angela Merkel says Britain must choose between immigration controls and a trade deal involving membership of the single market — it cannot have both.

Boris Johnson was forced to reassure the Conservative right that he would fulfil his promise to limit immigration if he won the leadership. On Monday he suggested he would prioritise free trade with EU states, caused a backlash.

The EU four freedoms — movement of people, goods, capital, and services — are cornerstones of the single market.

Remaining UK options

Norway is in the European Economic Area. It accepts free movement of people and makes a payment to the EU in exchange for access.

Switzerland is not in the single market. It has a free trade deal for goods and access for some services but not full access for financial services. It accepted free movement of EU citizens.

Canada has a free trade deal with the EU. Canadians need a visa to work in the EU. The Canada deal will allow free trade in almost all goods apart from some farm products and in many services but not financial services. The deal took five years to negotiate.

Michael Gove mentioned the Albania model. Albania has free trade for industrial goods but not agricultural products and no single market access for financial services.

The Norway Option

Wolfgang Münchau

Membership of the European Economic Area — the Norway option — gives countries full access to the single European market, albeit with no say in EU politics.

EEA membership would be the least damaging to the British economy and would best minimise the transitional costs of Brexit. No British company would have to leave Europe. The City of London would keep its EU passport. This option is economically almost neutral.

But it would compromise several key Leave campaign messages. It would not allow Britain to curtail free movement of labour from the EU. The UK would still pay into the EU budget.

A new prime minister could set a time limit. Britain could decide later whether to continue in the EEA, opt out for a new agreement, or rejoin the EU, either under Article 49 or under some form of associate membership.

A Norway option is not ideal. Before the referendum, there was a broad consensus that there is really not much point in leaving the EU in order to join the EEA. But now it is the best choice left.

Elites of the World, Rise Up!

James Traub

The British have had their day of reckoning. The American one looms. France may face a similar fiasco next spring.

In much of Europe, mainstream parties of the left and right may increasingly combine forces to keep out the nationalists. Perhaps these informal coalitions can survive until the fever breaks. Cohabitation may be their only alternative to irrelevance.

The issue is globalization. Brexit, Trump, the National Front, and so on show that political elites have misjudged the depth of the anger at global forces. With prospects of low growth in Europe and the United States, voters are rebelling against their dismal prospects. Older people whose familiar world is vanishing are waving their fists at cosmopolitan elites.

Perhaps politics will realign itself around the axis of globalization, with nationalists versus pragmatists. The nationalists would see themselves as the defenders of sovereignty. The reformed center would include the beneficiaries of globalization and the marginal citizens excluded by the celebration of national identity.

Mainstream parties on both left and right are trying to reach the angry nationalists. But left and right disagree deeply about how best to cushion the effects of globalization and how to deal with increased migration. Even the threat of extremism may not be enough to bring them together.

The schism we see opening before us is deep. People are deluded and the task of leadership is to disillusion them. If it is now elitist to believe in reason, expertise, and the lessons of history, we should embrace it.

AR Bring reason and history to the masses with a globalist spin — CORAL

2016 June 28

Cameron gets frosty welcome at farewell EU summit

Financial Times

EU leaders have refused to engage in negotiations until Article 50 is invoked.

German chancellor Angela Merkel: "We will ensure that the negotiations will not be run on the principle of cherry-picking. We must and will make a palpable difference over whether a country wants to be a member of the family of the European Union or not. Whoever wants to get out of this family cannot expect that all the obligations fall away but the privileges continue to remain in place."

Dutch premier Mark Rutte said give Britain some space: "England has collapsed politically, monetarily, constitutionally and economically."

French prime minister Manuel Valls: "It's not up to the British Conservative party to set the agenda."


The Guardian

Result of Labour No Confidence motion: 172 for, 40 against, 4 spoilt ballots, 13 didn't vote.


Jeremy Corbyn

The government is in disarray. Ministers have no exit plan, but are determined to make working people pay with a new round of cuts and tax rises. Labour has the responsibility to give a lead where the government will not. To do that we need to stand together. I was democratically elected leader of our party for a new kind of politics. Today's vote by MPs has no constitutional legitimacy.


John Kay

English politics is in chaos, Scottish politics is not. The SNP has a clear and positive vision of the future. The SNP will only call a fresh referendum if it is confident of winning it, but Scottish accession to the EU would be greeted with open arms. Even dallying with the prospect of joining the EZ might help things along.

A British Folly

Friends of Europe

This is just the beginning of a major political, constitutional and economic crisis in the UK. Within hours of the result, Sinn Fein had called for a vote on reunifying Ireland, Spain called for joint control of Gibraltar, and far-right leaders in France and the Netherlands called for their own EU referendums. Scotland wants to stay in the EU.

The Brexit leaders are in disarray. They never had a plan as to what voters would get instead of the EU. Westminster has a clear majority of MPs who support staying in the EU. The EU leaders are pushing for a rapid move on Article 50. The UK currently lacks any strategic political leadership. Business as usual will not do.

Britain spoke, Europe should listen

Etienne Davignon

Britain has sent Europe a message. Europe needs to heed it, because the same message is being repeated often and loudly by EU citizens.

The immediate priority must be restoring stability. Economic convergence, banking union, and energy union are all political issues related to specific problems. For these problems, sharing our sovereignty makes sense. But jumping to a federal political Europe is not the answer.

The British public were not impressed by the agreement reached by Cameron. Brexit shows politicians can no longer ignore popular frustration.

After Brexit

Marine Le Pen

The people of Britain have decided, with the courage of a people who embrace their freedom.

British voters understood the question: Do we want an undemocratic authority ruling our lives, or would we rather regain control over our destiny?

The European Union has become a prison of peoples. In the eurozone, different economies are forced to adopt the same currency, even if doing so bleeds them dry. The European Parliament is democratic in appearance but is based on a lie: We have tried to deny the existence of sovereign nations.

The British have presented the union with a dilemma. Either it allows Britain to sail away quietly and set a precedent. Or it makes the British pay for their departure and thus exposes its tyranny. I have a feeling Brussels will choose the latter.

Brexit will not make the union more democratic. Like all dying ideologies, the union knows only how to forge blindly ahead. Germany will lead the way.

I choose France. I choose sovereign nations. I choose freedom.

AR Wonderful rhetoric, better than any words from Farage, but subverted by a naive petitio principii over national identities.

Theresa May

Financial Times

Theresa May appears austere and remote, shuns the media, and refuses to put her private side on show. A leadership survey by ConservativeHome in June found that May was the choice of 35% of respondents, more than Boris Johnson, for party leader.

Just a few weeks earlier, as home secretary she spoke on police reform to the Police Federation in Bournemouth. With a piercing stare she listed the corruption, incompetence, racism, and gross misconduct that had scarred policing for over 20 years.

Theresa May Is Conservative Front Runner

The Times

Party support for Theresa May has soared, making her more popular than Boris Johnson in the race to become the next Conservative leader. The home secretary is now the betting favourite to replace the prime minister.

The English language could be banned from the heart of Europe after Brexit. English is the #1 choice for EU institutions but no state other than the UK has registered it as its primary language. So its legal status will be removed when the country leaves.

England out of Euro 2016: Iceland 2 England 1

Go Now

Daily Mirror

Britain is in its biggest crisis for decades and so is the Labour party. Jeremy Corbyn has lost control of his MPs with 46 resignations from his shadow cabinet and frontbench. He must quit now for his party and his country.

I do not believe that Brexit will happen

Gideon Rachman

Britain might be heading towards a second referendum rather than Brexit. Boris Johnson in February: "There is only one way to get the change we need — and that is to vote to go; because all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No."

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble talks of negotiating an associate membership status for Britain. In reality, the UK already enjoys a form of associate membership since it is not a participant in the single currency or the Schengen zone.

What the new PM would need to win a second referendum is an emergency brake on free movement of people. It was a big mistake on the part of the EU not to give David Cameron this concession in his renegotiation of the UK terms of membership. A second referendum with a proper answer to the question of immigration should be winnable.

Anger in Berlin

Florian Gathmann

Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel wird sich heute ihre Regierungserklärung zum Brexit abgeben.

Aus SPD-Perspektive ist Merkels Kurs grundfalsch. Die Kanzlerin möchte den Eindruck vermeiden, Berlin wolle zu viel Druck auf Großbritannien beim Vollzug des Brexit erzeugen.

SPD-Chef und Vizekanzler Sigmar Gabriel sieht
die Gefahr aufkommender Fliekräfte in Europa, wenn man Großbritannien zu viel Zeit lässt. Gabriel: "Das Brexit-Referendum hat Großbritannien gespalten. Damit der Brexit nicht auch Europa spaltet, müssen die Staats- und Regierungschef jetzt schnell für Klarheit sorgen."

Nicht nur Gabriel sondern auch Sozialdemokraten Außenminister Frank-Walter Steinmeier und dem Chef des Europaparlaments, Martin Schulz, wollen Tempo machen in Sachen Brexit.

Gabriel und die SPD träumen mal wieder vom großen Wurf: Europa neu gründen.

AR In short: Chancellor Merkel is ready to give Britain more time to decide on Brexit. But the SPD trio vice-chancellor Gabriel, foreign minister Steinmeier, and European Parliament president Schulz want a fast Brexit.

Brexit and Angry Old Men

Jochen Bittner

Brexit was a victory for angry old men like Nigel Farage.

Our future is in danger of being taken away by the maniacs of disintegration. The vote for Brexit was very much one of the old against the young. The older the voter, the more he or she was inclined to leave.

We can still repair the damage done to democracy. Migrants and refugees have become symbols of the idea that elites have unleashed rapacious globalization that hits poor people hardest. Yet it is dangerously foolish to believe that Europe can somehow shut its doors to the world.

The outpouring of anger in Europe has only just begun.

2016 June 27

Brexit Turmoil Continues

Financial Times

Markets in turmoil: FTSE 100 down 2%, FTSE 250 off 5.9%, the pound drops 14%

David Cameron addresses House of Commons, advocates minimal change

Labour party in turmoil: dozens of shadow cabinet members resign

Britain Is Part of Europe

Boris Johnson

This EU referendum has been the most extraordinary political event of our lifetime.

The number one issue was control. We should restore to the people the power to kick out their rulers at elections. People who voted Leave were also inspired by the belief that Britain is a great country, and that outside the EU we can survive and thrive as never before.

Britain is and always will be a great European power. The only change is that the UK will extricate itself from EU legislation. This will bring golden opportunities for this country. The Government will be able to take back democratic control of immigration policy.

The verdict of history will be that the British people got it right.

AR Boris is no historian.

Brexit May Never Happen

Gabriel Roth

Across social media were reports of Leave voters waking up with remorse. Some were counting on a Remain victory and wanted only to send a message or press the EU for reforms — like playing a game of chicken with 64 million hands on the steering wheel.

If Boris Johnson becomes prime minister, he knows that as soon as he triggers Article 50 and begins the EU withdrawal process, the markets will plunge again. The more time that passes before the Article 50 notification is sent, the less likely it is to happen.

Conservative MP and Leave campaigner Liam Fox: "I think that it doesn't make any sense to trigger Article 50 without having a period of reflection first, for the Cabinet to determine exactly what it is that we're going to be seeking and in what timescale. And then you have to also consider what is happening with the French elections and the German elections next year and the implications that that might have for them."

Johnson would be tempted to kick the can down the road. Perhaps a blue-ribbon commission will meet for six months and then deliver a report to Parliament, which then engage in its customary vigorous debate. Maybe Johnson would call a general election and push for an aggressive renegotiation of UK membership in the EU.

The British establishment is good at muddling along. But a period of prolonged uncertainty about Brexit might be worse for Britain than just doing it. A long wait would see the Conservatives lose seats to UKIP. But a prime minister faced with a choice between that and the financial calamity of full Brexit might go for the lesser of two evils.

The biggest concern is Scotland. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has a strong incentive to press Johnson to invoke Article 50 so she can demand a new Scottish referendum. History is full of tragic ironies.

City Braces for More Losses

The Guardian

British businesses say Brexit will trigger investment cuts, hiring freezes, and redundancies. A survey by the Institute of Directors (IoD) found that most businesses believed Brexit was bad for them.

IoD director general Simon Walker: "A majority of business leaders think the vote for Brexit is bad for them ... Businesses will be busy working out how they are going to adapt and succeed after the referendum result ... But we can't sugar-coat this: many of our members are feeling anxious."

Food Prices Will Rise

The Independent

National Farmers Union president Meurig Raymond calls the referendum result a "political car crash" and warns that UK dependence on imports plus a weakened pound equals rising food prices.

The EU Will Treat Britain Like Greece

Matthew Holehouse

The European Union can be both flexible and brutal.

EU leaders have been ready to say goodbye to Britain for a long time. Britain has not left until Article 50 is activated formally. David Cameron has left it to his successor to activate it.

In brutal EU negotiations, Greece had a number of cards to play: EU solidarity, sympathy for the Greek people, and the German taxpayer cash in Greek banks that risked going up in smoke. And Greeks made plain they wanted to remain Europeans.

No such goodwill exists for Britain. Boris Johnson caused grave offence by likening the European project to the ambitions of Hitler. His declarations that Brexit will trigger events that unravel the entire project is like a declaration of war.

Recall how inflexible EU leaders were earlier this year, when Cameron put a gun to their heads and threatened to leave unless they submitted to his demands. He has fired that gun at his foot and resigned. The only leverage left is the damage a messy Brexit would inflict on EU economies.

The EU has had 70 years of practice in breaking nations.

A Very British Fiasco

Peter Bergen

It's not often that one decision can cripple your own economy, damage global investor confidence, imperil one of the most successful alliances in modern history, foster the rise of ultra-nationalists, precipitate the possible breakup of your own country, deeply divide your own party, and cause a great schism between voters of every ideological stripe, but this is one of them.

Well done, David Cameron.

AR Britain is facing its worst crisis since the war. But there is no Churchill in sight. We need a PM who can show enough leadership to kick the referendum result into touch until wisdom prevails, portray Leavers as dupes of wild newspapers and a UKIP plot, reassure EU leaders, and chart a course to rehabilitation in the global community.

2016 June 26

A Very British Coup

The Sunday Times

Labour plot
UK shadow foreign secretary Hilary Benn was sacked this morning after being accused of plotting to overthrow his party leader. Benn had been consulting colleagues about approaching Jeremy Corbyn to tell him that unless the Labour leader resigned this week, they would quit. The coup attempt came amid mounting anger over Corbyn's failure to campaign harder against Brexit. A shadow cabinet source: "Corbyn will be out by the end of the week."

Shadow health secretary Heidi Alexander resigned over the dismissal. Shadow minister for young people and voter registration Gloria De Piero and shadow Scottish secretary Ian Murray have also resigned.

Benn: "It has now become clear that there is widespread concern among Labour MPs and in the shadow cabinet about Jeremy Corbyn's leadership of our party. There is no confidence that we will be able to win a general election as long as Jeremy remains the leader. He's a good and decent man, but he is not a leader. And that's a problem."

UKIP leader Nigel Farage: "We have the potential to keep a lot of the voters that we've got and extend out into Labour party territory in the north of England. In the Midlands and northern towns and cities the response to us on the referendum was huge. Once people have made that connection and they've left their party over a referendum, it becomes easier to leave your party over how you vote at other elections too."

Could Scots Veto Brexit?

The Observer

Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon says the Scottish parliament could veto Brexit by blocking the passage of needed legislation: "If the Scottish parliament is judging this on the basis of what's right for Scotland then the option of saying we're not going to vote for something that's against Scotland's interests, that's got to be on the table."

A poll carried out just after the Brexit result revealed a bounce in support for Scottish independence. In 2014, Scotland voted to remain part of the UK by 55% to 45%.

Sturgeon: "There are going to be deeply damaging and painful consequences of the process of trying to extricate the UK from the EU. I want to try and protect Scotland from that ... As I watch what's happening in Westminster just now, the complete vacuum of leadership, it's shameful what's happened both in the Tory party and in Labour. I am determined that Scotland is going to be led, and led with purpose."

European Populists

Henrik Müller

Populists exploit general dissatisfaction. Only a quarter of European citizens think things in their countries are going in the right direction. The mood in the UK is far from the worst.

Populism needs only three ingredients: a national myth to weld a We together, a few enemies, and a halfway charismatic leader.

For economic development populism is highly problematic. Anyone who ignores economic limitations can quickly gain a following. But they will fail in the end.

European populists are enjoying the slipstream of Brexit:
— Geert Wilders in the Netherlands
— Marine Le Pen in France
— Heinz-Christian Strache in Austria
In eastern Europe some are already in government:
— Jaroslaw Kaczynski's PiS party in Poland
— Viktor Orbán in Hungary
— Robert Fico in Slovakia

Referendums are the populist power tools of choice.

Brexit — So What?

Christoph Schult

Brexit will have dramatic consequences for the UK. But for the EU they will be mainly positive:

1 Brexit will scare off copycats

Even if right-wing populists like Geert Wilders or Marine Le Pen look with longing to referendums, they are unlikely to win majorities for Nexit or Frexit. The flood of bad news from Britain over the next few weeks and months will be enough to scare voters.

2 Brits can no longer block things

Economic union must finally be realised so that national decisions no longer endanger the common currency. We need common economic governance and a European finance ministry with its own resources. The same goes for foreign and security policy.

3 We don't always need more Europe

It would make sense to return a few competencies from Brussels to national states. Although Brits will no longer get the deal David Cameron negotiated, the other 27 EU states can still implement some of its terms.

So more EU citizens will learn to love the union.



From Brexit to #Regrexit — an online petition demanding a second referendum on the Brexit result has passed 3 million signatures.

EU Referendum Rules triggering a 2nd EU Referendum

We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.

AR My signature is #2,774,019.


"This was their meanest hour."

"Es gibt nichts drumherum
zu reden, der heutige Tag
ein Einschnitt für Europa."

Angela Merkel


2016 June 25

Wake Up!

David Lammy

Wake up. We do not have to do this. We can stop this madness and bring this nightmare to an end through a vote in Parliament. Our sovereign Parliament needs to now vote on whether we should exit the EU.

The referendum was an advisory, non-binding referendum. The Leave campaign's platform has already unravelled and some people wish they hadn't voted to Leave. Parliament now needs to decide whether we should go forward with Brexit, and there should be a vote in Parliament next week. Let us not destroy our economy on the basis of lies and the hubris of Boris Johnson.

AR If Parliament fails to step up to the plate to reject this abortive experiment in direct democracy, my novelist persona envisions a brief military coup to stop the Beleavers and reject the referendum result in order to maintain national security. Not very plausible ...


The Times

Boris Johnson is the frontrunner to become the next Conservative prime minister. Theresa May is emerging as the leading Conservative "stop Boris" candidate.

Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon has started to fulfil her manifesto promise to hold another independence referendum in Scotland.

Market Reaction
Global markets took a $2 trillion Brexit hit, the biggest one-day drop since 2007.

A Shambles

Matthew Parris

Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith, propped up by Nigel Farage, are not viable as a new British government. This will be a shambles.

Our experiment in direct democracy is hurtling toward our tradition of representative democracy. Within a year they will collide. The overwhelming majority of Westminster MPs believes that leaving would be a mistake.

Biggest Blunder Since WW2

Charles Kaiser

The numbing news that Britain has voted to leave the European Union is the worst step backward for Europe — and for Western civilization — since the end of World War II.

That hideous conflict left much of the continent in ruins. But it had two extremely positive effects:

1 Personal experience of the horrors of war has inoculated Europeans against all-out war ever since.

2 Visionary politicians pushed for the creation of what would become the European Union.

French ambassador to the United Nations François Delattre: "These are difficult times, and we must chase these evil winds of populism by addressing the real issues facing our democracies."

German ambassador to the United States Peter Wittig: "This is a really serious setback. We have to prove to the citizens that the European Union is there for them — that it is a union for the citizens and not a union for the bureaucrats."

A Leap in the Dark

Roger Cohen

Brits have given the world a massive kick in the teeth by voting to leave the EU. The decision will plunge Britain into uncertainty for years to come.

Warnings about the dire consequences goaded a mood of defiant anger among voters. They are revolting against global capitalism. The EU was a convenient target of their rage.

The EU may unravel. Dutch nationalist Geert Wilders tweeted: "Hurrah for the British! Now it is our turn. Time for a Dutch referendum!"

Brits voted against the global economic and social order. Now Britain will punch beneath its weight. It faces serious political and economic risk.

Russia Rejoices

Radio Liberty

Russian politicians, journalists, and nationalists are reveling in the UK vote to leave the EU. Russian TV stations spoke of a victory for Little England and cast the referendum as a nightmare for Brussels.

Russian ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky hailed the vote as a "heroic deed" by the British people: "Agricultural, provincial, working Britain has said no to a union created by the financial mafia, globalists, and the rest of them."

Cameron Ruined

Max Hastings

David Cameron has been destroyed by Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. He now pays the price for years of unfulfilled pledges and for running a Remain campaign that disastrously misjudged the mood of the British people.

Cameron is a bright man but his personal clique is dominated by Etonians and PR men. He has never seemed to possess any vision of where he wanted to take Britain. When he became Conservative leader, he conveyed to party supporters and to the nation the impression that he was sceptical about the EU and committed to force change in our relationship with Brussels.

Cameron gave repeated public pledges to control immigration, then made no credible effort to do so. This failure has grown into the main cause of the breakdown of public trust in him. As the numbers of people coming to Europe increase into the millions, the response of EU leaders remains pitiful. Now tribal instincts have been roused and nationalists are in rebellion against ruling elites.

When Cameron leaves Downing Street, there will be no substantial legacy. He will be remembered chiefly for lighting the fuse that led to Brexit. He will leave the UK and his party more divided than at any time for a generation.

UK: Old Against Young

The New York Times

At Glastonbury, Lewis Phillips, 27, said he was now "terrified" about British economic prospects: "A group of pensioners have managed to make a decision for us."

In London, Louise Driscoll, 21, spent most of the day crying: "I had a bad feeling in my gut. What do we do now? I'm very scared."

The vote exposed a generational divide. According to pre-election surveys, 57% of Britons between the ages of 18 and 34 intended to vote for remaining in the EU, while 57% of Britons over 55 supported leaving. For those under 25, three-quarters wanted the UK to stay in the EU.

Many young people in Britain have grown up thinking of European integration as a given, not a political experiment to be rolled back.

2016 June 24

UK Votes OUT From EU


A clear majority of UK voters want to leave the European Union:
Leave — 17,410,742 (52%)
Remain — 16,141,241 (48%)

UK Prime Minister David Cameron resigns, with effect from October.

Sterling falls 10% to its lowest value since 1985.

EU Reaction

"We now expect the United Kingdom government to give effect to this decision of the British people as soon as possible, however painful that process may be. Any delay would unnecessarily prolong uncertainty. We have rules to deal with this in an orderly way."

European Council president Donald Tusk
European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker
European Parliament president Martin Schulz
European Union president Mark Rutte

AR This earthquake is a consequence of mass migration. Sovereign states across Europe want the freedom to restrict the flow. The EU can adapt and survive but it needs radical reform. Britain was always the odd one out in the EU and the other 27 states will find agreement easier. If sterling fails to recover quickly, Scotland may vote to leave the UK, join the EU and adopt the euro. That will be the end of the UK and an opportunity to write a new English constitution. The rump state might even one day find its way into a federal European polity.

Independence Day: Resurgence

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