Image: Bryan Christie Design

Singular Prophet

By Mike Hodgkinson
The Sunday Telegraph, September 27, 2009

Edited by Andy Ross

Ray Kurzweil is an inventor. He invented a machine for reading books to the blind, a music synthesizer, and educational software for students with learning difficulties.

Since 2005, he has become known as a technology speculator. He boldly envisions that tiny robots will reverse the effects of pollution, artificial intelligence will far outstrip biological human intelligence, and humankind "will be able to live indefinitely without ageing." All before the middle of the 21st century.

Ray Kurzweil, 61, sincerely believes that his own immortality is a realistic proposition. He thinks we will be able to upload the human brain to a computer, capturing "a person's entire personality, memory, skills and history," by 2040. Humans and machines will then merge so effectively that the differences between them will no longer matter. After that, intelligence will start to expand outward into the universe, around about 2045.

The singularity is taken to signify what is unknowable. It suggests that we haven't really got a clue what's going to happen once machines are vastly more "intelligent" than humans. For Kurzweil, it is "a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed".

"I didn't come to these ideas because I had certain conclusions and worked backwards," he explains. "In fact, I didn't start looking for them at all. I was looking for a way to time my inventions and technology projects as I realized timing was the critical factor to success. And I made this discovery that if you measure certain underlying properties of information technology, it follows exquisitely predictable trajectories."

For Kurzweil, the pace of technology is increasing at an exponential rate, with an exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. It is this understanding that gives him the confidence to believe that technology will soon surpass the limits of his imagination.

He reckons that if he slows down his own ageing process, he'll be around long enough to witness the arrival of technology that will prolong his life forever. But not everyone concurs with his appraisal of technological progress or his belief in the imminence of immortality.

In the the upcoming documentary Transcendent Man that examines his life and theories, Kevin Kelly, founding editor of future-thinking magazine Wired, calls Kurzweil a "deluded dreamer" who is "performing the services of a prophet". Kurzweil says humankind's inevitable move toward non-biological intelligence is "an essentially spiritual undertaking".

Thanks largely to Kurzweil and the singularity, scenarios once viewed as diverting entertainment are being reappraised with a new seriousness. "People can argue about it," says Kurzweil. "But when it comes down to accepting each step along the way, it's done really without much debate."
 

Humans Immortal by 2040

By Sharon Gaudin
Computerworld, October 1, 2009

Edited by Andy Ross

Ray Kurzweil says that anyone alive in 2040 or so could be close to immortal. Nanobots will flow through human blood streams. A combination of nanotechnology and biotechnology will wipe out cancer, Alzheimer's disease, obesity, and diabetes. Humans will augment their natural cognitive powers and add years to their lives.

Kurzweil: "The full realization of nanobots will basically eliminate biological disease and aging. I think we'll see widespread use in 20 years of [nanotech] devices that perform certain functions for us. In 30 or 40 years, we will overcome disease and aging. The nanobots will scout out organs and cells that need repairs and simply fix them. It will lead to profound extensions of our health and longevity."

People will still be struck by lightning or hit by a bus, but much more trauma will be repairable. If nanobots swim in blood, then wounds could be healed almost instantly. Limbs could be regrown. Backed up memories and personalities could be accessed after a head trauma.

Researchers at MIT already are using nanoparticles to deliver killer genes that battle late-stage cancer. And scientists at the University of London are using nanotechnology to blast cancer cells in mice with "tumor busting" genes.

Kurzweil says that by 2024 we'll be adding a year to our life expectancy with every year that passes. And in 35 to 40 years, we basically will be immortal.

Kurzweil: "The definition of human is that we are the species that goes beyond our limitations and changes who we are. If that wasn't the case, you and I wouldn't be around because at one point life expectancy was 23. We've extended ourselves in many ways. This is an extension of who we are."
 

AR  My next book will sort all this out a little less wackily, I hope. The key is to keep an eye on the political and economic developments that either enable or disable the exponential. Recall that most initially exponential growth in previous tech and its apps soon curved over and even down again. Recall the exponential rates for population growth that would lead to standing room only on planet Earth in the near future. All predictions are dumb, but some are dumber than others. Kurzweil, prepare to meet thy death!