A nimbler machine learning model periodically forgets what it knows.
AIlanguage engines use ANNs. Each neuron receives signals from other neurons, runs calculations, and sends signals on through multiple layers of neurons. Training improves the information flow as the network adapts. But training takes a lot of computing power and is hard to adapt.
Researcherstrained an ANN in one language, then erased what it knew about the tokens that build words. These are stored in the first layer of the ANN, the embedding layer. They left all the other layers of the model alone. Then they retrained the model on another language to fill the embedding layer with new tokens. The model could learn and process the new language.
Theytried periodically resetting the embedding layer during the initial round of training. They trained a model using periodic forgetting and compared its performance with standard training. The forgetting model did worse than the standard one. Retraining the models on other languages with smaller data sets reduced the accuracy of both models, but the standard model fell by more.
Theapproach resembles how human brains work.
When sleepy people were given a math problem that needed creative insight, those woken just after falling asleep were almost three times as likely to make the creative leap and solve the problem as those who had remained awake. Cognitive performance declines the longer you are awake.
Youngadults are best at solving problems. Other mental skills mature later: Comprehension plateaus in late middle age. Flow occurs when you get deeply involved in an activity and is linked with clear goals, fast feedback, and a balance of task and skill. To cultivate it, try mindfulness.
The brain makes up around 2% of our body weight but uses some 20% of the energy we burn at rest. Most of this energy is used to maintain different voltage levels across neural membranes. They need to be restored whenever a neuron has fired.
Thebrain uses similar energy for tasks we regard as hard and for easy ones. It allocates resources to its parts to suit mental load. A challenging task increases metabolism in the neurons doing the task and decreases it elsewhere, draining glucose and causing a tired feeling.
Whenthe brain burns ATP and produces adenosine, it tells itself it's tired. Thinking for several hours leads to a buildup of glutamate in the forebrain that produces a feeling of mental fatigue.
Men and women tend to live different lives, due to either innate differences or history and politics. Male brains tend to be bigger and heavier, matching their bigger bodies. Sex differences in the size of some brain structures remain after controlling for total brain size. About a third of regions are larger in men and about a third larger in women, by a few percent, maybe in responses to gender roles.
AR I find it fascinating how AI progress illuminates how the brain works. And I'm pleased by how we're making big advances in understanding the brain in detail. The psychological theories of the twentieth century may soon seem like ancient mythologies.
Frank Herbert's Dune novels struggled with a debt to colonial adventure literature. Writing in 1965, Herbert was attuned to critiques of colonialism. His hero Paul Atreides is filled with doubts about his role as a messianic leader and director of colonial conquest.
DenisVilleneuve's Dune: Part Two builds on Herbert's anti-colonial leanings with storytelling tweaks. Villeneuve goes further in questioning the basis of colonial narratives. But it still centers the story on a colonial hero, and Paul is better at being Fremen than the Fremen themselves.
Fewblockbuster films give narrative primacy to colonized people. Refusal to see colonized people as central to their own stories is colonialist. Dune: Part Two tells the same old story.
AR I look forward to seeing it. Dune: Part One was glorious in its sweep and scope, with magnificent vistas and overwhelming sound, and I hope for more of the same. If the story is somehow colonialist in inspiration (hard to avoid with a messianic hero) then so be it.
Eastern Europe has ceased to exist. Hungarians and Poles think of themselves as Central European, while the Baltic states claim membership of the Nordic zone. The region's peoples were bound together by their years of communism and separated by their languages, ethnicities, and faiths.
Theregion has uniquely rich and heterogenous narrative traditions in its folklore and legends. Its nation states use storytelling to form usable pasts out of their histories. The stock of legends, folk tales, and parables has connections with the ideologies of fascism, communism, and neoliberalism.
EasternEurope's superstitious and syncretic past helps in understanding communism's industrial miracles, worker heroes, and paranoid surveillance systems. The dogmatic and mystical character of the communist period is rooted in how Marxism was seen as yet another salvation doctrine.
AR This is the rich vein of raw material for ethnographic science that my friend Violetta has mined during the course of her academic career.
Theorists say quantum patterns can last forever. Experiments find they can last for eons. Can an eon stretch to eternity?
Aquantum particle can tunnel through barriers. But it tunnels to sites with a similar energy, and in a disordered landscape such sites are scarcer. So more disorder tends to localize a particle.
Thermalizationoccurs when a system gets disordered. But a disordered landscape may trap particles and stop them thermalizing, preserving quantum patterns by many-body localization (MBL).
Withincreasing disorder, quantum particles may switch from thermalizing to nearly localized behavior. If localization persists for infinite systems, thermalization and localization look like phases.
Arugged energy landscape may localize particles, preserving quantum structures at any temperature. A landscape of particles with enough disorder might preserve any localized configuration.
Randomlyexploring an infinite mountainous landscape will find an extended flat patch. Particles in a flat zone can easily meet and thermalize. Particles in nearby mountains can get thermalized too.
Afew thermalized particles can start an avalanche. But as a landscape gets more mountainous, thermalization slows down.
Forthe MBL transition, a very mountainous landscape is terra incognita.
AR I find all this intriguing but inconclusive. Is the universal heat death delayed to eternity by the persistence of quantum structure? Watch this space.
What is the meaning of life?
Manypeople think meaning has something to do with narrative. They think the notion of narrativity captures something profoundly important about life. Many people think narrativity is psychologically inevitable and a good thing, or even essential to a good life.
Meaninghas something to do with being interesting. But there is no necessary relation between narrativity and interest. Narrativity is neither necessary nor sufficient for interest.
Thepast can be important in the absence of narrativity or of no importance. Profound friendship doesn't require any ability to recall past intense shared experiences, nor any tendency to accord them importance, but is shown in how one is in the present.
Deepeningknowledge of a subject may intensify the pleasure it gives without requiring narrativity. A felt connection with a personal past need not be narrative in character. Narrativity can be a rich source of pleasure yet unnecessary to a good life.
Themeaning of life is life.
AR These are interesting meditations, for me, but I think they concede too little salience to the role of narrativity in human life. We spin little narratives in just about every autobiographical utterance. This adds up to a lot of our mental and social life.
Two researchers have shown how to transform aperiodic tilings into quantum error-correcting codes.
Classicalcomputers use bits 0 and 1. Qubits can be in superpositions of 0 and 1 states. Measuring a qubit returns either 0 or 1. Interactions between qubits and their environment can lead to errors.
AShor code tolerates qubit errors and corrects them before they accumulate. It distributes information across entangled qubits and turns a cluster of physical qubits into a single virtual qubit. The error correction is related to local indistinguishability: Any single error is reversible.
Foraperiodic tilings, local indistinguishability means the same set of tiles can form infinitely many tilings that look different overall, but whose local areas cannot distinguish them, as every finite patch of any tiling will show up somewhere in every other tiling.
ZhiLi and Latham Boyle built a quantum error-correcting code based on Penrose tilings. An infinite plane covered with Penrose tiles is described like a grid of qubits as a superposition, but with tilings for 0s and 1s. An error deletes a patch of the tiling instead of the qubit states in a cluster.
Tilingconfigurations unaffected by local errors use superpositions of Penrose tilings. Given any tiling, an infinity of new tilings can be generated by translating it in any direction or rotating it. The set of all such tilings forms an equivalence class.
Inthe Li−Boyle code, a virtual qubit is encoded in superpositions of all tilings within an equivalence class. A procedure for filling in gaps hides information about the overall quantum state.
Liand Boyle also constructed codes for a finite quantum system and for a discrete one.
AR This sounds like good work. Quantum error correction will be a big thing when we begin to build quantum computers at scale. The code for entangling qubits is fascinating theoretically, too.
Inmy naivety, I stood on the Penrose tiling outside the Mathematics Institute in Oxford and thought the tiling was amusing but no more. Next time, I'll recall its role in quantum computing.
Rishi Sunak and the Tories may be heading back into opposition.
Therewere two by-elections on 15 February. In Kingswood, Labour secured a big swing, though amid the low turnout their number of votes fell by a third. In Wellingborough, the Tory candidate did far worse, but she didn't have Sunak's backing. These are slim pickings.
Labourdidn't even have a good run heading into the votes. We had agonising, not very well managed, on the £28 billion Green Prosperity Plan, plus continued grumblings over Keir Starmer's stance on Gaza. All this will sour the by-election in Rochdale on 29 February.
Theelectoral force of newspapers is waning fast. The budget is coming, and all the talk is of tax cuts. Tory MPs and right-wing papers are trapped in the politics of their childhoods or their heyday, when Mummy Thatcher told them all what to think and what to like.
Voterscan see the dire state of the public realm. They remember the twin disasters of austerity and Brexit, the five prime ministers, among them the two worst in history, and too many lies, too many scandals, too much gaslighting, too much corruption.
Noamount of crazed media propaganda can help.
AR UK voters are increasingly desperate for changes that a Tory government seems structurally incapable of delivering. Instead of constructive amelioration of the privations of its citizens, the present government seems intent on pandering to its core voter base and on stoking fear and division on such issues as immigration and woke culture.
As Ukraine wakes up to the second anniversary of Russia's invasion, exhaustion is setting in. This grinding war is wearing down Ukrainian troops, civilians, and leaders.
Atleast 10,000 Ukrainian civilians have died since it began. An estimated 3.7 million people are displaced internally, and more than 6.3 million have fled abroad.
Ukrainiansstill see little choice but to fight on. Putin has no reason to seek an exit when he believes that the West is wearying of the war and Trump may soon return to the White House.
Ukraineis still fighting, despite the immense human cost. Europe and America must make good on their commitments.
The chances of a premeditated Russian invasion of a NATO country are minimal.
Russiais a much weaker military power than was thought. Even without US help, European countries combined heavily outweigh Russia in terms of numbers, weaponry, and military spending.
Europeanrearmament is necessary for peace with Russia. Only a Europe confident of its ability to defend itself can break the fear of losing its US security guarantee.
Astronger Europe could have blocked the US push for NATO expansion and urged caution over Ukraine. It could decouple from the US confrontation with China and US policies in the Mideast.
Germansecurity has suffered. The loss of cheap Russian energy and disruption of Chinese markets for German goods are a threat to Germany that outweighs the loss of eastern Ukraine.
Germanyshould have halted NATO and EU expansion. In 2007, it should have vetoed NATO membership for Ukraine. In 2013, it should have sought an economic agreement with Russia.
Theworld is a dangerous place. But military advocates ignore the need for diplomacy. Europeans should take Putin up on his offer of peace talks.
Increasedmilitary spending will advance European strategic autonomy.
AR All this is a tragedy. The US-led push for the eastward expansion of NATO was bound to encounter pushback from Putin's Russia. German voices should have urged caution more boldly.
TheRussian invasion two years ago was inevitable by then. The only defensible option now is to support Ukrainian resistance more fully and end the Putin regime, but this will be painful.
Europemust end its slavish hewing to the US line on all matters of geopolitics. This could trigger the demise of NATO during the next US presidential administration. A tragedy.
The Odysseus lunar lander has made a touchdown on the Moon. Also called Odie or IM‑1, it is the first commercial spacecraft to do so and the first US vehicle to do so since Apollo 17 in 1972.
Houston-basedrobotic explorer developer Intuitive Machines chief executive Steve Altemus: "I know this was a nail-biter, but we are on the surface, and we are transmitting. Welcome to the Moon."
NASAadministrator Bill Nelson: "Today is a day that shows the power and promise of NASA's commercial partnerships. Congratulations to everyone involved in this great and daring quest."
Sir Keir Starmer KCB KC MP has a lifelong interest in social justice: "There is no version of my life that does not largely revolve around me being a human rights lawyer."
Starmer:"I'm proud to live in a country where almost everybody accepts principles about people being free from arbitrary arrest and imprisonment, how they should not be tortured, and − above all − that they should get a fair trial."
Starmeris an empathetic, caring, decent man. He makes the hospital visits others would find reasons to dodge, listens attentively to stories of personal misfortune and finds ways to help, sticks by old friends when others might find glamorous new ones.
Starmer:"My political project is to return Labour to the service of working people and working-class communities. There may have been times in the recent past where Labour was afraid to speak the language of class at all − but not my Labour Party."
Starmerwent from defence barrister to director of public prosecutions (DPP), where he was closer to the establishment. The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) gave him a taste for administration but also involved him in cases that offended the liberal left.
Starmerbecame an MP in 2015, aided by Ed Miliband, then the leader of the party. He was elected for Holborn and St Pancras in north London at the age of 52: "I thought Ed was going to win. Five years of opposition felt a very long time."
Starmerthen faced Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader and the Brexit vote in 2016. Brexit and Corbyn became mingled for him. He did not admire Corbyn personally and stayed only to fight in parliament for a softer Brexit.
Starmernegotiated a fudge in which Labour would come out for a new public vote at conference in 2018: "Nobody is ruling out Remain as an option."
AR He seems like a good candidate to become the next UK prime minister. On current polling, he's almost guaranteed the job.
⦿ Christopher Payne Robodogs with LLM brains
Robot makers would love to plug a good brain into a robot body. Large language models can answer any question a robot may have about how to do a task, and robots have bodies to connect words to reality, so it seems logical to connect them.
Aworking robot reviews the actions it can perform and chooses the ones that best fit its instructions. It sends electrical signals to its mechanical parts, making them move. Then it learns from its sensors how it has affected its environment, responds again, and so on.
AnLLM is a neural network. Each node sends and receives information over its connections and assigns each input a weight. The node sums up the weights to decide whether to fire off a signal to other nodes. The model adjusts its weights to act as people want.
AnLLM has no real understanding of what it says. When you give an LLM a prompt, the model converts your words into numbers. The math in the model predicts the most probable response. The model then converts the numbers back into text.
Arobot linked to an LLM has huge language ability and a body that can do only so much. To avoid mistakes in math and logic, the LLM needs prompting with a sample question and an example of how to solve it. Then ChatGPT can write a Python script for a robot.
AnLLM can make a plan for a robot. Executing that plan requires a program in hard code. Researchers are working on multimodal models that generate not just language but images, sounds, and even action plans for robots.
AR Yes, this seems logical. I see huge potential in this step. Indeed it's a premise in my latest, upcoming novel about how AI may come to dominate the world.
The qubits in quantum computers are fragile and easily disturbed. Nearly a fifth of all the errors in them are caused by cosmic rays. Quantum error correction fails for too many errors at once.
Researchersmonitored an array of ultracold superconducting qubits next to radiation detectors. They established a strong correlation between cosmic rays and qubit errors.
Thequbits used in both experiments took 10−100 μs to recover, but standard error-correction techniques would need them to recover in much less than 1 μs.
AR Cosmic rays could spoil any computation in principle via bit flips, but the probability with our present architectures is small enough for error correction to keep up. This could be an insoluble problem for cryogenic quantum computation.
Ukrainian veteran Yuliia Paievska: "We are the dogs of war. I had children die in my hands .. I pray that none of you and your children will be forced to defend your own land just because Russians would decide that they have a right to your land."
Germanchancellor Olaf Scholz: "We need greater military clarity. We need to articulate a more operational and coordinated package of support to Ukraine."
Polishforeign minister Radosław Sikorski: "We are on a knife edge because Europe .. is not at the moment capable of producing all the equipment and ammo that is necessary."
Danishprime minister Mette Frederiksen: "Europe still has military equipment. We have weapons, ammunition, air defense systems .. we need to transfer them to Ukraine."
TimothySnyder: "It is a world war in which only one country is fighting. It is shocking .. how slowly we have mobilized .. We have not been creative and quick enough."
NiallFergusson: "The challenge is to convince certain people and politicians .. Only a small and dwindling minority of Republican voters think that the US is not doing enough."
AR Europeans need to feel the urgency of the need both to arm up and to send arms to Ukraine. We must make sacrifices. The UK government is still bleating about high taxes and hoping to cut them.
Putin'srecent threat to nuke Western capital cities if he is defeated in Ukraine must be faced down sternly. We cannot let ourselves be blackmailed by a desperate old man.
The Munich Security Report 2024 explores the lose-lose dynamics spurred if ever more governments prioritize relative payoffs rather than engage in positive-sum cooperation and invest in an international order for the benefit of all.
Keyactors in the transatlantic community, in powerful autocracies, and in the Global South have become dissatisfied with what they perceive to be an unequal distribution of the absolute benefits of the international order.
Asmore and more states define their success relative to others, a vicious cycle of relative gains thinking, prosperity losses, and growing geopolitical tensions threatens to unroll. The resulting lose‑lose dynamics are already unfolding.
Thetransatlantic partners and like-minded states thus face a difficult balancing act. Amid increasing geopolitical rivalry, they must invest in defense and deterrence while restricting the pursuit of mutual benefits.
Valérie Hayer, leader of Emmanuel Macron's political group in Brussels, Renew: "I know that in Theresa May's time, there was a defence treaty on the table. I think that would be very, very useful .. to accelerate European defence."
Atthe Munich Security Conference, UK shadow foreign secretary David Lammy said a Labour government would seek a security deal with the EU: "My party is proposing a new EU−UK security pact. And it's a pact that is effectively built on the fact that we obviously have war here in Europe."
Hayer:"Because of what has happened since Brexit with the war in Ukraine, I think we can actually move in this direction .. We need the European Commission to make this a top priority .. We need to step up the pace on these issues."
AR The shift from global thinking to relative advantage is a troubling development. In the context of wars in Ukraine and the Mideast and of economic troubles in most rich countries, it's no surprise, but the outcome will be more friction and less progress.
Anew EU−UK security pact is the least we need in Europe. I say we also need a unified continental nuclear deterrent based on the merged British and French deterrents. This may be technically challenging, but with German help it must be doable.
Alexei Navalny had tried to work within the democratic structures of the Russian Federation. His success worried the regime. He was prevented from running in the presidential elections in 2018.
Navalnyamassed millions of followers. In 2020, the regime bungled an attempt to poison him. After treatment in Germany, he decided to return to Russia. He was arrested and imprisoned.
Navalnysaw his survival in prison as a clarion call to Russians. His death testifies both to his appeal as the alternative to Putin and to the fragility of the regnant political system.
Russia'sinvasion of Ukraine is a strategic failure. The expansion of NATO, Ukraine resolved on membership of NATO and the EU, and the Russian casualties are all disasters for the Kremlin.
AR Putin is emulating Stalin and Hitler in his treatment of political opponents. He deserves a similarly ignominious fate. But the cost of delivering it with the requisite decisiveness will be high for the democratic West.
CNN/HBO/BBC Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, 47, "died suddenly" in an Arctic penal colony.
USpresident Joe Biden: "Make no mistake, Putin is responsible for Navalny's death."
Ukraine'spresident Volodymyr Zelensky: "It's obvious he was killed by Putin."
We can measure the mass and spin of a black hole from information about gas flows in the strongly curved spacetime around it. If we see X‑rays from a billion light-years away, they're probably from an accreting supermassive black hole, a.k.a an active galactic nucleus (AGN).
High-energyplasma around the black hole creates X‑ray photons. A black hole accretion disk is topped by a hot corona: The material in the accretion disk is O(1 MK), but the corona is O(1 GK). As the corona irradiates the disk with X‑rays, it causes ions in the disk to radiate their own X‑rays.
Thesesecondary X‑rays are reverberation echoes. We measure time delays between a primary X‑ray flash from the corona and the echoes from the accretion disk. We read time delay Δt as distance cΔt, which amounts to mapping the gas flows within a few times the event horizon radius.
Wesimulate corona-accretion disk systems to match the data we see. Using general relativistic ray-tracing simulations, we take a model for the corona, shine light rays from it in all directions, and follow where the light rays go. Some of them irradiate the disk and reflect into our telescope.
TheEvent Horizon Telescope has been imaging the black holes at the center of our galaxy and M87. To find out how black holes grow, we need to look at black holes that are actively growing and are extremely luminous in X‑rays. That's where reverberation mapping comes in.
Wefind black holes that behave as expected, trace the geometry around them, and make precision measurements. A clean system close to Earth is an X‑ray binary called MAXI J1820+070. This 10 M⦿ black hole is pulling gas off a companion star to form an accretion disk and a corona.
ASASSN‑18elis an AGN that suddenly went crazy. It had initial outbursts, then it turned off, then it turned back on again to become the brightest X‑ray source in the extragalactic sky for about a year, and then it began to turn off again. Now it may be turning back on.
AR This is fascinating work: echo-location with X‑rays. The dynamics in the neighborhood of our local supermassive black hole unfolds fast enough for our human span to encompass major changes, so we can hope for an explanation for the "crazy" behavior of ASASSN‑18el soon enough.
The Beyond the Imitation Game benchmark (BIG-bench) uses tasks to test large language models (LLMs). On most tasks, performance improves predictably and smoothly as the models scale up. But with other tasks, the leap in ability seems unpredictable and emergent.
LLMsbecome more effective as they scale up. The added complexity of larger models should enable them to get better at more difficult and diverse problems. But whether this improvement looks smooth and predictable or jagged and sharp results from the choice of metric.
Three-digitaddition offers an example. In the 2022 BIG-bench study, the ability to add seemed to emerge at a certain threshold. But the LLMs were judged only on accuracy: Either they did it perfectly, or not at all. Even if an LLM predicted most of the digits correctly, it failed.
Newmetrics show that as parameters increase, the LLMs predict an increasingly correct sequence of digits. This suggests that the ability to add grows gradually. Emergence is explained away by different measuring tools. This may not be so for future LLMs.
AR Artifacts of measurement are a common distraction in science, so no surprise here. But at some point in the growth of complexity, our ability to devise fair tests gives out. Then we see emergence whether we like it or not.
For GWF Hegel, the Christian gospel of selflessness could not prevail in a world of power and property. The Reformation freed Christianity from medieval superstition, but its deepening of subjectivity led to a cult of guilt and repentance.
Kantbelieved the French Revolution was the most auspicious episode in history since the coming of Christ. Hegel found a similar retreat from history in Kant as he did in Christianity. He saw the French Revolution as a flight into a void.
Hegelwas aware of the defects of the society over which the modern constitutional state stood guard. Along with excessive wealth, he said, there was a plunging of the masses into spiritual and material deprivation.
Hegelsaid the Weltgeist attains its goal when it curves back on itself. It finds a human mind in which to become conscious that everything had to happen as it did. It chose his own mind as its mirror.
AR This rational closure into a loop is what makes Hegel's philosophy so fascinating. It prefigures the strange loops that Douglas Hofstadter described in his classic 1979 book Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid (and in his 2007 book I Am a Strange Loop).
TheHegelian loop also prefigures the thalamo-cortical loops that neuroscientists have found in the neurodynamics of conscious brains, where neural circuits form giant recursive loops that spiral into an I‑vortex (Rodolfo Llinás) or an ego tunnel (Thomas Metzinger).
Isay the neurodynamic architecture of consciousness is this recursive looping through a succession of neural configurations that manifest phenomenally as a series of worlds of consciousness. William James described these worlds in his 1902 Gifford lectures.
Fora vividly impressionistic (but baffling) glimpse of my views, see my 2002 slide show Mindworlds. For a more thorough presentation, see my 2009 book Mindworlds.
Warning: Donald Trump will seek to formally withdraw the US from the NATO alliance if he wins a second term. Former Trump administration national security adviser John Bolton: "NATO would be in real jeopardy. I think he would try to get out."
Retiredgeneral and Trump White House chief of staff John Kelly: "The point is, he saw absolutely no point in NATO. He was just dead set against having troops in South Korea, again, a deterrent force, or having troops in Japan, a deterrent force."
Trump is working to undermine NATO. On Saturday, he said he would encourage Russia to do "whatever the hell they want" if NATO members failed to spend 2% of GDP on defence.
Russiahas initiated the most devastating war on European soil since 1945. It poses the biggest threat to the security of NATO in decades. The US still has tens of thousands of troops stationed in Europe.
NATOrests on confidence that its promise of mutual defence will be upheld more than any legal obligation. Trump has shattered that confidence. Even doubling European military expenditure tomorrow would not repair it.
Trump'smessage is a clear signal to Europeans that they must start preparing to protect their security without US involvement. Many capitals still appear in denial about the investment needed.
Europeansmust plan for war without America. That requires a European pillar within NATO. Europeans must prepare for a new world.
AR This why I warned that a second Trump presidency would usher in a catastrophe of Biblical proportions. Encouraging Putin in Europe and Xi in East Asia would usher in WW3.
"Whoever wishes to become a philosopher will do well to pay attention to the history of science, and particularly to its warfare with theology. With the exception of pure mathematics, every science has had to begin by fighting to establish its right to exist .. Darwin came too late to suffer penalties, but Catholics and the Legislature of Tennessee still regard evolution with abhorrence. Each step has been won with difficulty, and each new step is still opposed, as if nothing were to be learnt from past defeats." (1942)
"Itis amusing to hear the modern Christian telling you how mild and rationalistic Christianity really is and ignoring the fact that all its mildness and rationalism is due to the teaching of men who in their own day were persecuted by all orthodox Christians .. The gradual emasculation of the Christian doctrine has been effected in spite of the most vigorous resistance, and solely as the result of the onslaughts of freethinkers." (1930)
AR Quite right, so far as it goes. The New Atheists in the decade following 9/11 were intellectually indebted to Russell. Today we can look back more benignly on Christianity as having shaped the civilization that gave rise precisely to science as we know it.
Adolf Eichmann was tried in Jerusalem for having helped to organize the Holocaust. Hannah Arendt was there to report on the trial for the New Yorker. She was a Jewish refugee from Nazi Germany, a former student and lover of Martin Heidegger, and then an American political journalist.
Arendton Eichmann: "The longer one listened to him, the more it became obvious that his inability to speak was closely connected to his inability to think .. from the standpoint of somebody else .. There's simply resistance ever to imagine what another person is experiencing."
Arendtwas raised in Königsberg, where Immanuel Kant had lived and taught. She was 16 when she read his Kritik der reinen Vernunft and became committed to what he called an enlarged mentality. Arendt: "You think your own thoughts but in the place of somebody else."
Arendt:"Kant's whole ethics amounts to the idea that every person, in every action, must reflect on whether the maxim of his action can become a universal law .. it really is the complete opposite, so to speak, of obedience .. In Kant, nobody has the right to obey."
AR Interesting: Heidegger never moved us beyond the Kantian moral law, in my opinion; instead, he presided over a retreat from Kantian morality.
Hash tables need to be fast and compact, but these objectives are at odds. Accessing and modifying a database is faster when the hash table has more memory, and operations are slower in hash tables with less space.
Hashtables are designed to perform three basic operations: insertions, queries, and deletions. Entries in a hash table are stored as pairs, with the item connected to a key. Plug a key into a hash table query algorithm, and it takes you directly to the item.
Intheory, a "Bender" hash table delivers the best combination of time and space efficiency. A trade-off curve defines space as the extra space required to store a given set of items as the number of wasted bits per key. The curve gives the fastest time for a hash table with a given amount of space, or the smallest space for a given operation time.
Aprimary data structure stores the items with no wasted bits. A secondary data structure helps to find the requested item. The overall memory efficiency depends on how the primary structure arranges its stored items.
Thebasic idea is that every item in the primary structure has preferred storage locations ranked as 1 through N. An item in its best spot has key 1 in the secondary data structure. In response to a query, the secondary structure answers 1 to locate the item. An item in its nth‑best spot has key n.
Inbinary, n takes more memory than 1, so if you continually shift items in the primary data structure into their more preferred locations, you can reduce the memory consumed by the secondary structure without increasing query times.
Thisidea sets an upper bound for the most efficient hash tables. A lower bound on the runtime for a space-efficient hash table matches the Bender hash table exactly. Bender tables are optimal.
AR This is hardly breaking news for most of us, but for me it's a nice result to know.
America looks set to choose an old leader. Republicans are too afraid to renounce Donald Trump as their standard-bearer, Democrats are too afraid to ask Joe Biden to step aside.
Americanswere stunned by revelations about President Biden's mental condition that emerged from the investigation of his handling of classified documents. The special prosecutor concluded that Biden "was a well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory" and decided not to pursue criminal charges, suggesting a jury would regard Biden as mentally incompetent.
Bidenhastily arranged a press conference to refute this picture. But when the reporters began shouting their questions to him simultaneously, he froze, unsure of how to proceed. An ageing president who does not function effectively is an insult both to the people he is supposed to represent and to anyone in the world who looks to America for guidance.
Americahas forgotten what it was like to act in unison for the good of all.
AR The moves so far toward the 2024 presidential election present a deeply saddening spectacle. Many Brits look to America for political inspiration, and what they see is dismaying.
Gen Z kids born between 1997 and 2012 read physical books.
ModelKaia Gerber, 22, has launched her own book club, Library Science: "Books have always been the great love of my life. Reading is so sexy."
Lastyear in the UK, 669 million physical books were sold. Print books account for 80% of purchases from November 2021 to 2022. Libraries report an uptick in gen Z users.
Bookson the Bedside co-founder Hali Brown, 28: "The gen Z book sphere is incredibly broad. There is a lot of appreciation for literary fiction, memoirs, translated fiction, and classics in particular."
ModelKendall Jenner, 28, was pictured on a yacht reading a volume of essays on the objectification and commodification of the body.
Wehave entered an era of performative reading.
AR I hope this new Gen Z interest in printed books will extend to my latest novel, a brief and breezy love story set against a backdrop of AI finding new ways to dominate our world, which should be published later this year.
The American Dialect Society made "enshittification" its Word of the Year for 2023.
Enshittification is a three-stage process: 1 Internet platforms are good to their users. 2 They abuse their users to make things better for their business customers. 3 They abuse those business customers to claw back all the value for themselves.
AR The fuller text in the FT is a delight to read. Doctorow is a visiting professor of computer science at the Open University. This text is adapted from the Marshall McLuhan Lecture he delivered in Berlin last month. Toward the end of the FT text, he says this:
"Wecan reverse the enshittification of the internet. We can halt the creeping enshittification of every digital device. We can build a better, enshittification-resistant digital nervous system, one that is fit to co‑ordinate the mass movements we will need to fight fascism, end genocide, save our planet and our species."
Saturn's moon Mimas appears to have a vast global ocean underneath its icy shell. Observations show its orbit around Saturn is wobbling. Astronomers rejected the ocean explanation because the friction needed to melt the ice should mark the surface, but recent simulations suggest the ocean can exist without the marks.
Observationsby NASA spacecraft Cassini show the orbit of Mimas around Saturn has drifted some 10 km over 13 years. This orbital drift would be produced by wobbles from an icy shell sliding over an ocean. The moon's elongated orbit and ancient surface suggest the ocean is around 30 km deep and formed less than 25 million years ago.
Mimas is an oceanic world. Its ocean appears to be relatively new. The moon has an elliptical orbit around Saturn that periodically squeezes it in Saturn's gravitational field. That squeezing creates enough frictional heating to melt ice and sustain an ocean.
Anew study focuses on the moon's motion, finding a drift in its orbit via archival data from the NASA Cassini spacecraft. Some of the drift can be explained if Mimas has an icy shell that slides over an ocean.
Thegeologically quiescent exterior of Mimas should be impossible atop an ancient ocean whose churning waters would fracture and fragment the icy crust. The ocean must have formed less than 25 million years ago.
Mimashas an old surface. Its craters, such as the 140 km Herschel, are hard to reconcile with a tidally heated ocean under an icy shell. But Mimas wobbles about on its axis, and Enceladus does so because its icy crust is decoupled from its more sluggish underlying ocean.
Saturnis 4.5 billion years old. Its rings are maybe 100 million years old. Mimas has an ocean less than 25 million years old.
AR An interesting development: It suggests similar oceans may well hide beneath the icy shells of the moons of Uranus and Neptune. Imagine experiencing submarine views of all these lunar oceans via telepresence from robot craft sent in future planetary missions.
In quantum mechanics, the Copenhagen interpretation says a measurement collapses the wave function into a single outcome.
Bydecoherence, stray air molecules hitting electrons can measure them. All the information in the system, including quantum information about its superposition, spreads into the environment. The classical information remains easy to access, but the quantum information is practically impossible to see, as it gets spread out between the object and the detector.
Themeasurement-equilibration hypothesis (MEH) says measurement causes a quantum system to interact with a measuring device and spread information into the device until an equilibrium of information is reached between system and device. The equilibration can make the system look classical by hiding the quantum behavior but not destroying it.
MEHsays that all the measurement outcomes are still there but hard to see. There is no wave function collapse.
AR This is good. The collapse story was always a fudge, as Einstein understood already. Now we have the decoherence and thermodynamics story, there's no excuse to go on about it.
CNN Taylor Swift won the album of the year Grammy for Midnights: "For me the award is the work .. I love it so much."
Mental health apps can play an enormous role in terms of improving access to care, collecting useful data for an accurate diagnosis, and filling gaps left by overstretched healthcare systems.
Yetprivacy violations are common within the industry of mental health apps, which includes virtual therapy services, mood trackers, mental fitness coaches, digitized forms of cognitive behavioral therapy, and chatbots.
Independentwatchdogs have identified platforms exploiting regulatory gray areas to either share or sell sensitive personal information. At present, any company with sufficient funds for marketing can easily enter the market.
AIchatbots are marketed as a safe space for people to discuss their mental health or emotional struggles. Without oversight of the responses and advice these bots are offering, these algorithms can manipulate vulnerable people.
NeuroscientistThomas Insel: "Mental healthcare as we've known it for the last two or three decades is clearly a field that is ripe for change and needs some sort of transformation."
AR I think this is a hugely promising application area for big AI, so much so that the story of exactly how, in my humble opinion, it will be is the topic of my next novel, the (draft) manuscript of which, by happy chance, I finished this morning.
The Zone of Interest is an adapted screenplay of the book by Martin Amis. The film shows the daily details of the life of an upwardly mobile Nazi couple: Auschwitz commandant Rudolf Höss (Christian Friedel) and his wife Hedwig (Sandra Hüller) and their five children. The Höss family are raised according to the tenets of the Artaman League, a German movement that advocated an agrarian ideal and respect for the natural world.
Theyenjoy picnics by the river and days in the garden of their villa. We never see beyond the walls that separate them from the industrial death factory on the other side. But the ambient noise generated by the horrors within the camp is evoked with a suffocating intensity that matches the choking pall of smoke billowing continuously from the Auschwitz furnace chimneys.
Agnawing sense of dread permeates the film. It's a bruising watch.
Karl Jaspers, in a letter to Hannah Arendt written in 1946, told her he was uneasy with her view of the Holocaust: "It seems to me that we have to see these things in their total banality, in their prosaic triviality." TheZone of Interest is a riposte to the illusion of the exceptionalism of the Holocaust. The film is set just outside the camp perimeter, in the house inhabited by Auschwitz camp commander Rudolf Höss, his wife Hedwig, their children, and the servants. Their garden abuts the camp wall. The family adore the pastoral lifestyle they enjoy.
Inmany ways, nothing happens. The family is simply oblivious to the sounds that drift over the wall. But the noise is almost a second movie.
For me, this is a film about us and our similarity to the perpetrators. I was really interested in making a film that went to the primordial capacity for violence that we all have.
Ientered the camp and looked at the wall from the other side, trying to imagine what the prisoners must have heard. They would have heard happiness and gaiety as the Höss children laughed and splashed around in the pool. The film became about the proximity of the horror and the happiness.
Thereare, in effect, two films, the one you see, and the one you hear, and the second is just as important as the first. We already know the imagery of the camps. I felt that if we could hear it, we could somehow see it in our heads.
Imade this film to try to restate our close proximity to this terrible event that we think of as in the past. For me, it is not ever in the past.
AR What more can one say? I shall have to go and see it.
The dark dimension scenario offers a recipe for dark matter and suggests a link with dark energy.
Stringtheory suggests there are six compactified spatial dimensions. If one of them is much larger than the others, say 1 μm across, massive gravitons generated within it make up dark matter.
Recall the cosmological constant, Λ, O(10−122) in Planck units. In string theory, a tiny Λ implies much lighter WIMPs, which in turn implies that one of the compact dimensions is larger than the others.
Inthe first moments ABB, the cosmos was dominated by radiation. In the dark dimension scenario, colliding particles create dark gravitons with mass O(nM), for integer n and the value of M tied to Λ.
Imaginethe extra dimension as a small loop attached to every point in our 4D world. If two particles collide and create a graviton, the graviton can leak into that loop and travel around it like a wave.
Asgravitons leak into the loop, the waves they produce can have different frequencies and energy levels. These massive gravitons act where the loop attaches to the sphere.
Alarge dark dimension leaves room for long-wave, low-mass particles. But if a dark graviton leaked into a tiny dimension, its wavelength would be short, its mass and energy high, and its life short.
Gravitonspermeate all the dimensions of string theory. But the dark dimension is so much bigger than the others that gravity gets diluted, making it look weak in 4D and solving the hierarchy problem.
AR An intriguing chain of speculations that might bring us further. I reserve judgment until the chain is tested and corroborated in other ways. Dark matter and energy are still deeply mysterious.
Anadolu Overnight: USAF B-1B Lancer takes off to bomb targets in Syria and Iraq
Taylor Swift is an unstoppable cultural phenomenon, but something is happening to Gen Z. Barbie was taken seriously by many young women, but young men are getting more conservative.
Forsome young men, the anti-feminist backlash seems to have been a gateway drug to harder views on issues from immigration to social justice. Anti-immigration rhetoric is being linked with falling fertility rates and demands for white women to knuckle down and have babies.
Whywould the Swift generation want to settle down with men who seem to hate them? The angriest Kens may be heading for lonely lives.
AR The predicament of uncharismatic males in a fading patriarchy is unenviable. In past generations, they may have joined an army and achieved an honorable death on a battlefield, but woke politics have made that fate a less likely one. No easy answer for surplus young men today.
Taylor Swift found her image in deepfake porn images circulated online. Deepfake porn brings up a whole host of moral, ethical, philosophical, and legal questions. Deepfakes are the tip of an iceberg.
Animatingthe discussion of deepfake porn is a growing rightwing hostility to Taylor Swift. The right is rife with Swift conspiracy theories. Their problem with her is part of a wider hostility to a culture they feel has left them behind.
Swiftis a woman whose appearance and country music roots once led white supremacists to turn her into an icon of Aryan womanhood. She uses her music to speak to the complex feelings of women and girls. Deepfakes threaten us all.
Taylor has recorded 10 studio albums in 17 years. She has fluidly moved between country, pop, rock, synth, hip hop, folk, alternative, and indie genres. She has written or co-written 243 songs, some in collaboration, and sold 200 million records.
Taylorhas won 324 awards, including 12 Grammys, 23 MTV Video Music Awards, 40 American Music Awards, 40 Billboard Music Awards, 12 Country Music Awards, and an Emmy. She is the most-awarded artist of all times at the AMAs and BMAs.
Swiftwas the most streamed artist of 2023 on Spotify, Apple Music, and Amazon Music. She is the first living artist to simultaneously chart 5 albums in the top 10 of the Billboard 200.
Over20 universities include a Taylor Swift course in their catalog. Scholars compare her to major literary figures and songwriters. She fights for things she believes in and speaks up for women, LGBTQ, and artists. She is a poet.
AR Wonderful achievements. I really like listening to her albums. They reveal a complexity of feeling that makes the experience endlessly rewarding. Pity about the porn, but such is the price of fame.
AR My chair is endowed with a new textile investment
Integer linear programming (ILP) is popular in applications.
Algorithmsto solve ILP problems require a number of steps. In the trivial case where the variables assume binary values (0 or 1), ILP has a runtime scaling exponentially with the number of variables, a.k.a the dimension. Once the variables take values beyond 0 and 1, the runtime grows longer.
Anew algorithm solves ILP in almost the same time as the binary case.
ILPtransforms a given problem into a set of linear equations satisfying some inequalities. Turn the inequalities into a convex shape representing the constraints of the problem. The interior of this convex body corresponds to all possible values that can solve the inequalities. The problem dimension sets its dimension.
Next,imagine all the integers as a lattice of grid points with a dimension depending on the dimension of the problem. The possible solutions meet the set of integers at the intersection of the convex body and the lattice. An algorithm can search this space exhaustively.
TheILP algorithm runtime is (log n)O(n), where n is the number of variables and O(n) says it scales linearly with n.
AR This is a good and reassuring result to know, given the importance of ILP.
US secretary of state Antony Blinken: "This is an incredibly volatile time in the Middle East. I would argue that we've not seen a situation as dangerous as the one we're facing now across the region since at least 1973."
PresidentJoe Biden is considering his response to an attack that killed three US service members on Sunday amid concerns about the potential for an expansion of the conflict. He blames Iran-backed militias for the drone strike. The US military had failed to stop the drone approaching Tower 22, a base near Jordan's border with Syria.
Blinken:"We will respond."
AR This is an alarming development. If the Mideast goes up in flames, the risk of WW3 rises hugely. When the conflagration in the region ends, the world will look completely different.
Iguess that the aftermath would include the end both of militant Islam and of the state of Israel. The region would need decades to recover, and the population that remained would be chastened beyond recognition.
Butwho am I to say?
Neuralink founder Elon Musk says the first human to receive an implant from the brain-chip startup on Sunday is recovering well. The US FDA had given the company clearance last year to conduct its first trial to test the safety of the wireless brain−computer interface implant and the surgical robot. The interface will enable people with quadriplegia to control devices with their thoughts.
Musk:"Initial results show promising neuron spike detection."
AR This is encouraging. If this trial and others like it go well, I can imagine such chip implants as routine accessories for people who want to access their apps more conveniently.
JAXA SLIM lunar rover LEV-2 image of the lander's orientation on the lunar surface
Japan'sSmart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) robotic explorer is back in action.
Theexplorer landed at 2024-01-20-00-20 JST facing the wrong direction after an engine fail, so its solar panel was in shadow and it reverted to battery power. JAXA shut off the explorer and planned to restart it when its solar panel caught sunlight.
JAXAhas now established communication with SLIM and resumed operations.
The idea of the inspired author originating a text is a hangover from the Romantics.
Everytext is made of other texts. Every word in a novel or poem depends for its meaning on the vast constellation of other contexts in which it has appeared and through which its reader understands it.
Everyauthor is a meat-brained ChatGPT, trained by years of reading classics and copyright works.
TheRomantic model of the artist is that we have an ineffable inner essence, captured in the act of expression, which makes us more than a neurological compost of our inputs.
Thedistinction between LLMs and human creativity may not be deep.
AR Human understanding is a bit more than composting our inputs, but not as much as many imagine. We structure our understanding to reflect patterns in the input, although most input is too "random" (as the young Bill Gates used to say) to reveal much structure.
A second coming of Donald Trump is terrifyingly possible. What seemed unimaginable to most Europeans back in 2020 is now all too conceivable.
Trumpshredded US climate commitments when he was in office. In a second term, he would be an aggressive protectionist and would wreck the "special relationship" with the UK, still the backbone of its foreign policy.
Trumpyelled "I don't give a shit about NATO" when he was last in the White House. There were enough adults in the room to constrain him, but the fear in European capitals is that "Trump unbound" would shatter NATO.
Trumpclaims that he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours. He would try to coerce Ukraine into accepting a deal that left huge swathes of its territory in Russian hands. That would be catastrophic for European security.
Europeanleaders would look supremely foolish for failing to fulfil the pledges they made to improve their military capabilities.
AR It is surely time to consider this possibility seriously and prepare precautionary policies in all European capitals accordingly.
"Holocaust Memorial Day offers a valuable opportunity for the richly diverse communities of this nation to come together and recommit to building a society free from antisemitism, persecution and hatred."
Anesthesiologists promise patients that they will be disconnected from the outside world and their inner thoughts during surgery, retain no memories of the experience, and feel no pain.
Anestheticscan be tools to probe questions about consciousness. They allow us to induce profound and reversible changes in conscious states and to study brain responses during the transitions.
Tomeasure the transition from one state to another, a sensitive and precise approach is to ask patients to squeeze a ball whenever they breathe in. The squeezes are tracked using a dynamometer and an electromyography sensor. This technique tracks the sleep onset process without disrupting it.
Thebreathe−squeeze task is a sensitive approach to measuring the transition out of connected consciousness. The squeezing task appears not to disrupt the state of consciousness.
AR This is interesting for a consciousness researcher, but it doesn't help much in understanding how consciousness is implemented in the brain. We can work with brains that are clearly conscious or unconscious, then later, once we have a theoretical model, we can explore the clinical story.
The cerebellum contains some 50 billion neurons organized in an almost crystaline arrangement. It not only controls movement but also regulates complex behaviors, social interactions, aggression, working memory, learning, and emotion.
Thewiring pattern in the cerebellum is organized and compacted to concentrate its neurons into a 10 cm lobe. The principal type of cerebellar neuron, the Purkinje cell, is branching like a fan coral, yet flattened and nearly 2D. The fan blades are dendrites. The blades are arranged in parallel, stacked in a tight bundle. Thousands of neurons run axons through the depth of the stack, each axon connecting with tens of thousands of Purkinje cell dendrites.
Thecerebellum's circuitry can crunch enormous amounts of incoming data from the senses to regulate body movement. The motor control required for speech alone includes not only the intricate gymnastics of tongue and lips but also gesticulation. Our words are timed so we don't talk over the other person, and they are regulated for the social context: infused with the proper emotion, and driven by motivation, thought, anticipation, and mood.
Coordinatingthese functions requires tapping into most of what the brain does. It also requires engaging with the higher cognitive functions in the prefrontal cortex. The cerebellum has connections spanning the entire brain.
AR Fascinating. I'm sure there's a lot we still have to learn about how the cerebellum works, in computational terms, and how it contributes to overall brain function.
Memorial Museum of Cosmonautics, Moscow "Glory of the Space Heroes − Glory of the Soviet People!" (Boris Berezovsky, 1963)
Russians have been inclined to utopian mysticism. In Tsarist times, intellectuals imagined revolution would transform not just society but also the universe. Atheists said scientific laws, as outlined in Marxist−Leninist philosophy, would accomplish everything mystics had foretold.
Thephilosophy now called cosmism infused its spirit into Marxism−Leninism and now competes with Eurasianism and other ideologies to replace it. Unlike most Russian visionary schemes, it has influenced American transhumanists.
KonstantinTsiolkovsky inspired the Russian space program. President Putin: "We are not going to build just a cosmodrome and a launch pad here, but a research center, and a whole city. I think that if .. we call this future city Tsiolkovsky it will be only fitting."
Tsiolkovsky:"I am afraid you will leave this life with bitterness in your heart if you do not learn from me, a pure source of knowledge, that continuous joy awaits you .. The way I see it, my sermon is .. a strictly mathematical conclusion based on precise knowledge."
Tsiolkovskysaid atoms are asleep but can wake up in a brain. When it dies, its atoms eventually become part of other brains. In the interim they sleep. When they wake, life will seem to have been continuous. In that sense, we are immortal.
Tsiolkovskybelieved in eugenics. Central planners would control mating to produce a superior species: "And those who cannot be helped will be subsumed into nirvana."
AR Russian culture needs a complete overhaul to be up to the challenge of existing and coexisting in the modern world.
A new theory suggests that the big LLMs powering chatbots improve and develop in a way that hints at understanding.
AnLLM is a massive ANN with neural connections as parameters, whose number denotes its size. Its training algorithm takes its initial word choices, calculates a loss, and uses this loss to tweak the parameters. For that input, the LLM now calculates a lower loss. The algorithm does this for all the training data until the overall loss is acceptable.
Atrained and tested LLM, given a text prompt, generates the most likely next word, appends it to the prompt, generates another next word, and so on. Nothing suggests that bigger LLMs should improve at reasoning. But big LLMs demonstrate new abilities, from solving elementary math problems to answering questions about other minds.
Randomgraphs have edges between nodes set randomly with probability p and can model LLM behavior. Bipartite graphs have nodes for pieces of text and for the skills needed for a given piece of text. They can define the loss function for an LLM by connecting skill nodes to text nodes. A bipartite graph can show how an LLM gains skills.
BigLLMs connect new random combinations of skill nodes to individual text nodes and seem to show understanding.
AR It seems hard to connect such technical processes with understanding, but ask yourself: How does human understanding work? I can well imagine our brains doing something analogous to this to generate what we naively regard as understanding. Don't trust our own introspected "understanding" of understanding!
Populism is a potent form of democratic politics. It is also a destructive one. A classic populist alliance of fanatics and opportunists mixed simplistic analysis with heated rhetoric and outright lies to weaken the UK by committing Brexit.
Countriescannot be fully sovereign in trade, which involves partners. The rules of the single market were created because the alternative was multiple different regulatory regimes and red tape. The European Court of Justice decided on abiding by the rules.
Creatingthe single market was an act of regulatory simplification. Leaving it increases regulation for any business trying to sell in both the UK and the EU. No business entering the EU market today would locate in the UK rather than in an EU member state.
TheBrexit "liberation" has greatly curtailed the freedom of many millions of people on both sides. It has increased the freedom of British politicians to lie and to bend or break laws and regulations. All this is a result of populism.
AR Brexit was the most egregious and appalling act of betrayal and folly by the British political establishment in my lifetime. I will not tire of condemning it and advertising its contemptible idiocy for as long as I retain my power to fight back.
Giventhe painfully obvious absurdity and failure of the whole project, Brits need to press the next government (wake up, Sir Keir Starmer) to get Brexit undone by rejoining the EU as soon as possible − see ALBION.
There is a greater moral offence at play in Gaza than mere Western hypocrisy. The United States is currently furnishing Israel with bombs while supposedly giving the people of Gaza humanitarian aid. If Israel succeeds in forcing the population of Gaza into the Sinai desert, the presence of western humanitarian aid organizations sent to receive them there might even be used to set a precedent. Ethnic cleansing would be enabled by humanitarianism.
AR So it is with all the rules of war. Kill the enemy and do nasty things, but stop short of the banned atrocities to show your peaceful intentions. This is hypocrisy.
With the end of the Cold War, US president George HW Bush hailed a peace dividend for the West. With the demise of the Soviet Union, the West assumed the era of great power competition was over. China joined the WTO in 2001 and Vladimir Putin was welcomed as a reformist leader.
Buttoday the West confronts multiple threats. A revanchist Russia is waging a brutal war in Ukraine. An expansionist China is menacing Taiwan. Across the Mideast, an axis of resistance led by Iran is challenging the established regional order.
Europecontinues to rely on US military power. Only seven NATO countries met the target of spending at least 2% of GDP on defence in 2022. If Donald Trump regains the presidency in November, the era of easy peace is over.
AR Europe must organize itself to defend its values. The EU must regiment it more effectively. And the UK must step back from its US vassal status and cooperate again in Europe.
NATO Military Committee chair Admiral Rob Bauer: "We .. are preparing for a conflict with Russia .. anything can happen at any time."
NATOis mobilizing 90,000 troops for war games starting next week. Steadfast Defender will run until late May and involve units from all 31 NATO member countries plus Sweden.
Bauer:"Ukraine will have our support .. this war will determine the fate of the world."
German ministry of defense documents show how Russia can escalate its war in Ukraine to WW3: • February/March 2024: Russia mobilizes another 200,000 troops. • April/May 2024: Russia launches a spring offensive against Ukraine. • June 2024: Russia advances through Ukraine. • July 2024: Russia launches cyber attacks and incites violence in the Baltics. • September 2024: Russia exercises 50,000 Russian troops in Belarus and W Russia. • October 2024: Russia moves troops and missiles to Kaliningrad, attacks the Suwalki Gap. • November 2024: Chaos in Europe influences US presidential election. • January 2025: NATO convenes. Poland and the Baltics ask for help. • March 2025: Russia moves 70,000 more troops toward the Baltics and Belarus. • May 2025: NATO reconvenes. • Day X: NATO deploys 300,000 troops to its eastern flank. • Day X + 30: The end.
Add computing to culture, and culture changes. Algorithmic recommendation systems draw strategic attention to the agency of their operations over that of the humans who populate their datasets. • Kyle Chayka says algorithms have made culture homogeneous, repetitive, less interesting, and therefore less rewarding to consumers. He warns that algorithmic recommendation systems are shaping our aesthetics and diminishing cultural production. He values the friction of cultural particularity as a pledge of aesthetic value and calls for a return to human curators. • Taylor Lorenz says social media platforms have become entertainment industries. The apps once envisioned as portals for online friendship have been redirected to the content creator economy. Lorenz says the engine for this corporate revolution has been white women.
AR This is my cut of a long and thoughtful review. I found that review overloaded with heavy academic jargon. I think the topic demands clear thinking that cuts through the old tropes that fog our view and leave us fatalistic in face of change.
Bill Gates is bullish on artificial intelligence. He predicts it will be transformative for everyone within the next five years. He says AI will make everyone's lives easier.
Gatessays OpenAI's ChatGPT‑4 is "almost like having a white collar worker to be a tutor, to give health advice, to help write code, to help with technical support calls" and will be "fantastic" in education and medicine.
Gatesis worth $140 billion.
Social media weaponized with AI may play a destructive role in these elections this year. Democracies must work to strengthen political parties to rein in populists.
Socialmedia can help populists sell their core product. A direct connection between leaders and followers erodes political parties. The prospect of an unfiltered encounter promises authenticity and a sense of connection. Algorithmic curation to increase engagement amplifies this dynamic.
Democraciesmust overhaul how platforms are governed to make life harder for populists. Platform power gives too much power to a few people.
AR Weaponized AI will not make everyone's lives easier. It will further polarize politics, exacerbate economic inequality, and give "a few" people powers they should not have. People will need to use AI to curb AI, with the effect of entrenching AI power.
Iowa went for Donald Trump by a landslide. Trump is facing 91 felony counts in four separate cases covering everything from conspiring to overturn the 2020 election to falsifying records on hush money paid to an adult film star.
Trump romped to victory in the Iowa caucus. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis vied for a distant second. Looking ahead, a Trump loss in New Hampshire would be a mere speed bump. Meanwhile, Trump's legal woes remain the soundtrack of the political calendar.
Donald Trump won big today. He's running for the candidacy of a Republican party he's all but created. His style has made personal loyalty to his brand a litmus test in the party. Trump has made the Republicans a coherent, largely unified entity, bound together by a worldview and a leader.
Trump's landslide victory felt inevitable. Trump has already led a coup attempt, been indicted with dozens of counts of various felonies, and even compared his own views on immigrants to Hitler's. The Republican party is now a vehicle for the politics of cultural grievance and petty reaction.
Trump has remade not only the Republican party but Republican voters. He has persuaded them to reject the beliefs they once held and deny they ever held them. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley could only have displaced Trump by splitting the party.
Trump is what happens when a country pretends to be a democracy without empowering its subordinated populations, when republican government coexists with dramatic inequality of wealth, when corruption guides politicians more than principle, and when voters have no say on policy.
AR Trump as POTUS 47 will be the downfall of America, the end of the American century, and a Götterdämmerung as spectacularly hideous as that of the Third Reich. If this is what US voters want, so be it, but the rest of the world must gird its loins to ride out the mess.
The world's five richest men have more than doubled their fortunes to $869 billion since 2020, while the world's poorest 60% − almost 5 billion people − have lost money.
Areport by Oxfam says the gap between rich and poor is likely to increase and will lead to the first trillionaire within a decade. The world's billionaires are $3.3 trillion richer than in 2020.
Thecombined wealth of the top five richest people in the world − Elon Musk, Bernard Arnault, Jeff Bezos, Larry Ellison, and Mark Zuckerberg − has increased by $464 billion, or 114%. Over the same period, the total wealth of the poorest 4.77 billion people has declined by 0.2% in real terms.
Businessprofits have risen too: 148 of the world's biggest corporations together raked in $1.8 trillion in total net profits in the year to June 2023, a 52% jump compared with 2018−21.
Thelatest GINI index shows global income inequality is now like that in South Africa. The world's richest 1% own 59% of all global financial assets.
AR The governments of civilized countries should set wealth taxes at a level that softens the impact on poorer people. There is no moral case for accepting such inequalities as "the hand of the market" or any such twaddle. Money is a social good that should be regulated to serve the social good.
For now, indirect evidence for the existence of biology on distant worlds is our best bet to find it.
Astronomerscan detect planets orbiting distant stars and measure the chemical composition of their atmospheres. Life at a global scale on a planet can leave signals in the atmosphere.
Wepropose using information theory tools to detect signs of biological activity in other worlds. We have used the tools to compare the spectral data from simulated exoplanets to Earth's across a range of contexts at different stages of their evolution and orbiting around different host stars.
Onetool compares two absorption spectra and computes a configurational entropy that has a small value if the two compared worlds have similar overall atmospheric compositions and a large one otherwise. Another tool computes the configurational entropy for selected spectral frequencies.
Forus, an exoplanet is an Earth analog not only when it has the right radius and mass but also when its absorption spectrum is close in information space across planetary history.
Ourinformation measure can be applied to worlds with alien biological activity.
AR This work looks good to me. We shall never travel to most of the worlds of interest to us, but tools like this enable us to learn much of what we want to know anyway.
Record heat, record emissions, record fossil fuel consumption: The world is further than ever from reaching its collective climate goals. At the root of all these problems is a human behavioral crisis.
MerzInstitute co-founder Joseph Merz: "We've socially engineered ourselves .. We need to become mindful of the way we're being manipulated."
Hesays most climate solutions proposed so far only tackle symptoms rather than the root cause of the crisis. This leads to overshoot in materials usage, waste output, and growth of human society.
Merz:"We can deal with climate change and worsen overshoot .. Essentially, overshoot is a crisis of human behavior."
Marketingstrategies create behaviors incompatible with a sustainable world. One strategy against overshoot is to campaign using the tools of the marketing, media, and entertainment industries.
ThePopulation Media Center creates mainstream entertainment to drive behavior change on population growth.
AR I've long been bothered by our neglect of overpopulation and overconsumption as drivers of the climate crisis. This campaign is exactly what we need, on a massive and global scale.
Sadly,powerful pressures in the other direction will stymie it. The result will eventually be willed genocide against weaker groups by consumers socially engineered not to care.
A ring-shaped cosmic megastructure challenges existing theories of the universe. The Big Ring has a diameter of about 1.3 Ym and is more than 9 Ym from Earth.
Thesize of the Big Ring appears to defy the cosmological principle that above a certain spatial scale, the universe is homogeneous and looks identical in every direction.
Theobservations were presented at AAS243 in New Orleans.
AR This could be bruise from a dent made by a colliding brane within the cosmic bubble bath. Or it could be an unexpectedly large Einstein ring. Whatever, the cosmological isotropy principle is only a faute de mieux philosophical assumption.
UCSD researchers have developed a neural implant that provides information about activity deep inside the brain while sitting on its surface. The implant is a transparent polymer strip packed with a dense array of graphene electrodes.
Existingsurface arrays are unable to capture information beyond the brain's outer layers. Electrode arrays with thin needles that penetrate the brain can probe deeper layers but often lead to inflammation and scarring.
Theimplant is a thin and flexible polymer strip that conforms to the brain surface. The strip contains an array of circular graphene electrodes, each 20 μm in diameter and each connected by a graphene wire to a circuit board.
Intests on mice, the implant captured high-res data on electrical activity and calcium activity. Correlations between surface electrical signals and calcium spikes in deeper layers were used to train neural networks.
AR This is a useful step forward for neuroscientists. Implants that can read neural activity with high resolution in real time and allow direct connection to external circuitry enable us to map brain circuitry more fully and accurately than ever before.
AfD politicians met Identitarian Movement head Martin Sellner and neo-Nazi activists to discuss a masterplan for mass deportations. They met last November in Potsdam.
Themeeting was also attended by Bundestag MP Gerrit Huy and Roland Hartwig, a former MP and an aide to AfD leader Alice Weidel since September 2022.
Sellneris a key figure in the pan-European New Right. Identitarians oppose multiculturalism and the "great replacement" of whites in Europe by people from Africa and the Mideast.
Sellneraims to nudge politicians to accept remigration, the return of migrants to their countries of origin by mass deportation, with perhaps up to 2 million people to a state in northern Africa.
Herefuses to distinguish between different types of German citizen and says all remigration measures must be legal.
AR The plan doesn't surprise me. It's wildly unrealistic to allow the immigration of millions of alien and sometimes hostile people into a cohesive society and not expect serious tensions to arise.
AR Surface view on Sol c in the Sol system, 2024-01-10-13-32 UTC
The year 2023 was the hottest on record by a huge margin. Earth was 1.48 K hotter in 2023 compared with the period before the mass burning of fossil fuels.
Scientistsat the EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) say the 1.5 K mark set at IPCC in Paris in 2015 will likely be passed for the first time in the next 12 months.
Theaverage temperature in 2023 was 0.17 K higher than in 2016, the previous record year, marking a huge increase in climate terms. The primary cause was record emissions of CO2.
The high temperatures drove heatwaves, floods, and wildfires. Some of the extreme weather would have been virtually impossible without anthropogenic global heating.
Forthe first time on record, every day in 2023 was at least 1 K warmer than the 1850−1900 record. Almost half the days were 1.5 K hotter.
CCCSdirector Carlo Buontempo: "The extremes .. provide a dramatic testimony of how far we now are from the climate in which our civilization developed."
CCCSdeputy director Samantha Burgess: "2023 was an exceptional year, with climate records tumbling like dominoes."
AR This is alarming. Soon we shall see mass migration from the hot zones that only military force can stop. Droughts and starvation will lead to mass deaths. The global population will shrink.
Donald Trump is leading in the polls for the 2024 presidential election. He has already shown that he has no respect for a free election. His promise of retribution threatens to put his political enemies on trial. These would be political show trials.
Likeevery great power in history, America has done terrible things. But in the three great global confrontations of the last century, America was the decisive factor, ensuring that the democratic world prevailed over autocracy or dictatorship.
Americais the leader of the free world, both an example of democracy in action and the protector of its fellow democracies through a network of alliances. If democracy crumbles in America, then liberal democracies all over the world will be in trouble.
Americangreatness has always involved turmoil and melodrama. The melodrama that America churns up can be a sign of vitality as much as sickness. Voting for Trump is a sign that people are demanding fundamental change.
AR If Americans can't stop Trump before November, he looks likely to be elected. This would be an existential catastrophe for the free world and an end to the American Dream. Can't someone stop him before November?
Giving up certain things may be good for us. Yet the idea of someone just giving up is never appealing. Life has to be worth living.
Sacrificeis about what we should give up to get the lives we should want. It depends upon our knowing what we want. Giving up anything exposes what we think we want.
Desireis where need and want become blurred. When Darwin claimed survival and reproduction as the driving forces of evolution, he was making appetite the real driving force.
Thegreat religions and political ideologies tell us what we should want. Theories of human nature are stories about what people are deemed to need and want.
Thepsychoanalytic story tells how biological need becomes morality. It is a secular and materialist account of modern life. Survival and appetite underpin our ambitions and ideals.
Ourways of talking about wanting may be frustrating. If what sustains us also undoes us, we may ask what appetite can do.
AR This is a short take on a long (and wordy) source text, so it may seem disjointed, but I hope to have exposed the good insights that were buried in it.
Mars Aerial and Ground Intelligent Explorer (MAGGIE) is a fixed-wing aircraft powered by solar energy to fly in the Martian atmosphere with VTOL capability enabled by advanced deflected slipstream technology. In a Martian year it could fly 16 Mm.
MAGGIEcould conduct atmospheric and geophysical investigations: • A study of the origin and timing of the Martian core dynamo • An investigation of the source of methane signals detected by the Curiosity rover • A mapping of subsurface water ice at high resolution in the mid-latitudes
MAGGIEcould perform a global atmospheric mission over Mars.
AR This looks promising. I'm impressed that we can achieve sustained powered flight in the thin Martian atmosphere. The benefits in terms of survey results will be worth it.
General relativity and quantum mechanics seem incompatible. A method combines the two but leads to a surprising conclusion.
TheAlena tensor lets us describe events in such a way that the curvature of spacetime can be smoothly adjusted as if using a slider. In curved spacetime, the equation naturally transforms into the Einstein field equations. In flat spacetime, it lets us use special classical relativity. It is amenable to a quantum description.
Theslider works for gravity and electromagnetism. The Alena tensor lets us add further fields, so it may let us reconcile previously contradictory descriptions for other fields. The field invariant of the equation behaves like the cosmological constant in the Einstein equations. The tensor implies a force in addition to gravity.
Themethod suggests the world around us is a constantly waving field and that spacetime is only a way of perceiving this field.
AR This tensor seems to deserve more study than I have time to give it. It represents a class of stress−energy tensors with interesting properties. But it seems to be terra incognita.
Ifind it intriguing that the mathematical structure around general relativity has such unexplored richness. Perhaps we shall one day program an AI to explore all this more fully.
Theidea that our reality is an evolving quantum field is now familiar. We have for years been accustomed to saying spacetime may be an emergent phenomenon.
Kurt Gödel is well known for his incompleteness theorems and contributions to set theory, but his philosophical and religious views remain obscure.
In1961, Gödel argued for belief in an afterlife. His argument depends on the irrationality of human life in an otherwise reasonable world. The fact that our lives consist in unfulfilled or spoiled potential made him confident that this lifetime is but a staging ground for things to come.
Gödelbelieved in a rational order: "There reigns in everything the greatest regularity and order. Order is .. a form of rationality .. The idea that everything in the world has meaning is .. the exact analog of the principle that everything has a cause on which the whole of science is based."
Gödelbelieved the world's deep rational structure and the soul's postmortem existence depend on the falsity of materialism. Materialists said anything ungrounded in physical facts had no meaning or reality, so an immaterial soul had no meaning. He believed materialism was false.
Gödelclaimed to have proved that either the human mind "infinitely surpasses the powers of any finite machine" and is irreducible to the brain or that certain mathematical problems are absolutely unsolvable and hence more than human creations. He thought both were true.
Gödel:"The next world .. must be one that liberates us from our current earthly limitations."
AR Gödel was a logical genius but a philosophical dummy. His arguments are wishful thinking from strongly desired outcomes to sophistical constructions claiming to prove them. His mathematical results are immortal, but his physical body was only too human, and mortal.
Machine learning + Quantum computers = Quantum machine learning (QML)
Quantumcomputers promise to solve certain problems much more efficiently than can classical computers. Machine learning is a form of AI that spots patterns in data and learns rules of inference. Both technologies are making big strides forward.
CERNuses machine learning to look for signs of certain elementary particles in data from the LHC. Scientists there are experimenting with QML.
Anew quantum algorithm, HHL, is exponentially faster than a classical computer at solving the large sets of linear equations used in machine learning.
Atypical quantum computing app has three main steps: (1) the quantum computer is initialized, (2) it performs a sequence of logical operations, (3) it performs a readout. Algorithms such as HHL promise to speed up step 2. But in many apps, steps 1 and 3 could be too slow.
Speedis not the only metric. A QML system could spot patterns in the data that a classical system would miss. Entanglement establishes correlations among data points.
Aquantum measurement appears on a classical instrument. Quantum sensing uses quantum instruments. For QML, that could be good.
AR Solved big sets of linear equations is a huge application area, so QML has an enormous future. Watch this space.
The simulation hypothesis that the universe is a computer simulation is not a scientific hypothesis.
Ourperceptual experience of the world is the result of processing by systems and functions in the brain. These brain processes generate a vast amount of information beyond what we perceive. Our reasoning relies on concepts and words that are contingent on our social and psychological histories. Ergo, we will never know if we live in a computer simulation.
Butwe can model the universe as a computer simulation. Modeling reality is what we do as scientists. To facilitate our comprehension of the world, we build models based on conceptual metaphors that are familiar to us, such as the computer simulation metaphor.
Ina universe modeled as computation, the computer that renders space and its contents is beyond spacetime, for example in the Platonic realm of Forms. Many mathematicians say numbers have an objective existence in the realm of Forms. By locating numbers there, we can give physics an objective reality independent of the human mind.
Modelsare not reality but tools. A model of the universe as a computer simulation can be fun.
AR The Matrix scenario is a nightmare derived from a model. It's no more worth scientific attention than the visions in Dante's Inferno. But contemplation in that direction can correct a tendency to take the latest findings in cosmology too seriously.
Theidea that the simulation runs in the realm of Forms is one I had in the early 1990s. I wrote it up in a paper I called Soul Theory, where I proposed that human souls were structured Forms accessible through a suitable "hyperfax" machine.
Springerchief executive Herr Dr Heinz Götze, for one, found the idea most amusing.
Scientists are starting to communicate with such creatures as bats and honeybees.
Wecan use digital bioacoustics to understand animal communication. Portable field recorders like minimikes record sound 24/7 and collect lots of data. We can apply natural language processing algorithms to detect patterns in these recordings and decode what animals say to each other.
Researchersrecorded audio and video of fruit bats, then used a voice recognition program to analyze the sounds and another algorithm to correlate sounds to social interactions in the videos. Bats have signature calls like names, they distinguish between sexes when they talk, and bat mothers use a baby language with bat babies.
Honeybeescommunicate using sounds and body movements like the waggle dance. We can track them and predict the impact of what one bee says to another. Bees use toots, quacks, piping signals, and a hush or stop signal. A robotic bee went into a hive and issued commands the bees obeyed.
Digitalbioacoustics can change how we think about humans and other animals.
AR Brilliant! It won't be long before we, or rather our AI systems, can talk with the animals.Then all those old philosophical debates about animal minds and what it's like to be a bat will be obsolete and the mass slaughter of animals for food will look barbaric.
The year 2023 is likely to be Earth's hottest year on record. The 12-month period from November 2022 through October 2023 is the already hottest such period on record.
FromJanuary through September, Earth's average global surface air temperature was about 1.1 K higher than the 20th century average. June, July, August, September and October were each the hottest ever recorded for those months.
Globalaverage daily air temperatures in 2023 reached extreme heights during the Northern Hemisphere summer. The Southern Hemisphere had a hot winter and early spring, with peak temperatures above 40 C across parts of South America. In some areas, daytime temperatures were about 20 C above normal.
Fromlate March through October, the global average sea surface temperature consistently broke daily records. By July, it was nearly 1 K above average. On July 6, in Adrar, Algeria, nighttime temperatures never dipped below 39.6 C. On July 16/17, Death Valley in California recorded a midnight temperature of 48.9 C.
In2023, wildfires ravaged the Boreal region that wraps around the Earth just south of the Arctic Circle. Canada had its worst fire year on record, with estimated carbon emissions exceeding 400 Tg, more than a quarter of the world's wildfire emissions in 2023.
Inthe Northern Hemisphere, a wildfire in Greece became the largest ever recorded in the EU. Hawaii recorded the deadliest US wildfire since 1918. In the Southern Hemisphere, wildfires spread in many regions including Argentina and the Amazon rainforest.
Antarcticsea ice hit its annual maximum at about 1700 Mha in September 2023, some 6% below the previous maximum.
AR Bad news, with no indication that 2024 will be any better, and every chance it will be worse.